Denali Therapeutics (Denali Therapeutics) Predictability Rank

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What is Denali Therapeutics Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Denali Therapeutics Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Denali Therapeutics (Denali Therapeutics) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Biotechnology » Denali Therapeutics Inc (NAS:DNLI) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

4DN:Germany

Address

161 Oyster Point Boulevard, South San Francisco, CA, USA, 94080

Website

https://www.denalitherapeutics.com

Denali Therapeutics Inc is a biotechnology company that is engaged in developing and discovering therapeutics to defeat neurodegeneration disease. The company's development programs include the LRRK2 Inhibitor Program, which develops brain penetrant small molecule LRRK2 inhibitor product candidates for Parkinson's disease. Its key products include DNL201, DNL151, DNL747, ATV (Antibody Transport Vehicle), ETV (Enzyme Transport Vehicle), and others.

Executives

Vicki L Sato	director	940 WINTER STREET, PERKINELMER, INC. LEGAL DEPARTMENT, WALTHAM MA 02451
Carole Ho	officer: Chief Medical Officer	C/O DENALI THERAPEUTICS INC., 151 OYSTER POINT BLVD., 2ND FLOOR, SOUTH SAN FRANCISCO CA 94080
Ryan J. Watts	director, officer: President and CEO	C/O DENALI THERAPEUTICS INC., 151 OYSTER POINT BLVD., 2ND FLOOR, SOUTH SAN FRANCISCO CA 94080
Steve E. Krognes	officer: CFO and Treasurer	863 MITTEN ROAD, SUITE 102, BURLINGAME CA 94010
Alexander O. Schuth	officer: COO and Secretary	C/O DENALI THERAPEUTICS INC., 151 OYSTER POINT BLVD., 2ND FLOOR, SOUTH SAN FRANCISCO CA 94080
Marc Tessier-lavigne	director	1 DNA WAY, SOUTH SAN FRANCISCO CA 94080
Erik Harris	director	60 LEVERONI COURT, NOVATO CA 94949
Douglas K Bratton	10 percent owner	201 MAIN STREET, SUITE 1900, FORT WORTH TX 76102
Nancy Thornberry	director	SCHRODINGER, INC., 120 WEST 45TH STREET, 17TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10036
David P Schenkein	director	C/O BLUEBIRD BIO, INC., 840 MEMORIAL DRIVE, CAMBRIDGE MA 02139
Biogen Inc.	10 percent owner	225 BINNEY STREET, CAMBRIDGE MA 02142
Biogen Ma Inc.	10 percent owner	225 BINNEY STREET, CAMBRIDGE MA 02142
Arch Venture Partners Viii, L.p.	10 percent owner	8755 W. HIGGINS ROAD, SUITE 1025, CHICAGO IL 60631
Arch Venture Partners Viii, Llc	10 percent owner	8755 W. HIGGINS ROAD, SUITE 1025, CHICAGO IL 60631
Arch Venture Fund Viii, L.p.	10 percent owner	8755 W. HIGGINS ROAD, SUITE 1025, CHICAGO IL 60631