What is Digimarc Predictability Rank?
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Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
Digimarc Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
Digimarc (Digimarc) Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
8500 SW Creekside Place, Beaverton, OR, USA, 97008
Digimarc Corp provides automatic identification solutions to commercial and government customers and license technology and patented inventions to solution providers. Its Digimarc Platform applies a unique identities to virtually all media objects including product packaging, commercial print, audio and video that can be automatically identified by an enabled ecosystem of industrial scanners, smartphones and other interfaces. The company generates revenue through commercial and government applications of its technology. The company derives its revenue primarily from software development services, subscriptions for products and related services, and licensing of patents.
Executives
| Thomas Benton |
officer: EVP, Chief Revenue Officer |
8500 SW CREEKSIDE PLACE, BEAVERTON OR 97008 |
| Lashonda Anderson-williams |
director |
8500 SW CREEKSIDE PLACE, BEAVERTON OR 97008 |
| Andrew Walter |
director |
9405 SW GEMINI DRIVE, BEAVERTON OR 97008 |
| Tony Rodriguez |
officer: Chief Technology Officer |
9405 SW GEMINI DRIVE, BEAVERTON OR 97008 |
| Ken Sickles |
officer: EVP, Chief Product Officer |
8500 SW CREEKSIDE PLACE, BEAVERTON OR 97008 |
| Kathleen Kool |
director |
8500 SW CREEKSIDE PLACE, BEAVERTON OR 97008 |
| Vincent C Smith |
10 percent owner |
2560 EAST CHAPMAN AVENUE, #173, ORANGE CA 92869 |
| Milena Alberti-perez |
director |
8500 SW CREEKSIDE PLACE, BEAVERTON OR 97008 |
| Riley Mccormack |
director, 10 percent owner |
2555 LAKE AVE, MIAMI BEACH FL 33140 |
| Alicia Syrett |
director |
2420 17TH STREET, SUITE 220, DENVER CO 80202 |
| Ravi Kumar Singisetti |
director |
9405 SW GEMINI DRIVE, BEAVERTON OR 97008 |
| Sandeep Dadlani |
director |
9405 SW GEMINI DRIVE, BEAVERTON OR 97008 |
| Sheela Zemlin |
director |
9405 SW GEMINI DRIVE, BEAVERTON OR 97008 |
| James T Richardson |
director |
01396 SW MILITARY ROAD, PORTLAND OR 97219 |
| Bernard Whitney |
director |
|
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