DiaMedica Therapeutics (DiaMedica Therapeutics) Predictability Rank

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What is DiaMedica Therapeutics Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

DiaMedica Therapeutics Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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DiaMedica Therapeutics (DiaMedica Therapeutics) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Biotechnology » DiaMedica Therapeutics Inc (NAS:DMAC) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

301 Carlson Parkway, Suite 210, Minneapolis, MN, USA, 55305

Website

https://www.diamedica.com

DiaMedica Therapeutics Inc is a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company. The company is principally engaged in the business activity of developing treatments for unmet clinical needs or where no therapies are available with a primary focus on chronic kidney disease and acute ischemicstroke. Its pipeline product DM199 is a recombinant form of human tissue kallikrein-1.

Executives

Jan Stahlberg	10 percent owner	C/O TRILL INVEST AB, SVEAVAGEN 17 FL 18, STOCKHOLM V7 SE 111 57
Scott Kellen	officer: CFO and Secretary	3405 ANNAPOLIS LANE, SUITE 200, MINNEAPOLIS MN 55447
Randall Michael Giuffre	director	2 CARLSON PARKWAY, SUITE 260, MINNEAPOLIS MN 55447
Ab Trill	10 percent owner	SVEAVAGEN 17, 18TH FLOOR, STOCKHOLM V7 SE-11157
Richard D. Pilnik	director	2 CARLSON PARKWAY, SUITE 260, MINNEAPOLIS MN 55447
Dietrich John Pauls	director, officer: President and CEO	2 CARLSON PARKWAY, SUITE 260, MINNEAPOLIS MN 55447
Richard Ii Jacinto	10 percent owner	394 SADDLE BACK TRAIL, FRANKLIN LAKES NJ 07417
David J. Wambeke	officer: Chief Business Officer	301 CARLSON PARKWAY, SUITE 210, MINNEAPOLIS MN 55305
Private Ab Tomeqt	10 percent owner	C/O KINKON AB, BIBLIOTEKSGATAN 25, STOCKHOLM V8 11435
Koch Thomas Von	10 percent owner	TOMENTERPRISE AB, BOX 5322, STOCKHOLM V7 102 47
Ab Tomenterprise	10 percent owner	C/O EQT PARTNERS AB, BOX 16509, STOCKHOLM V7 103 27
Charles Pauling Semba	director	TWO CARLSON PARKWAY, SUITE 260, MINNEAPOLIS MN 55447
Richard Kuntz	director	MEDTRONIC, INC., 710 MEDTRONIC PWKY MS LC 310, MINNEAPOLIS MN 55432
Tanya Lewis	director	C/O KARYOPHARM THERAPEUTICS INC., 85 WELLS AVE., NEWTON MA 02459
Julie Vanorsdel Daves	officer: SVP Clinical Development Oper.	301 CARLSON PARKWAY, SUITE 210, MINNEAPOLIS MN 55305