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DISH Network (DISH Network) Predictability Rank


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What is DISH Network Predictability Rank?

1 (5)

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

DISH Network Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

DISH Network Predictability Rank Related Terms

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DISH Network (DISH Network) Business Description

Industry
GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Communication Services » Telecommunication Services » DISH Network Corp (NAS:DISH) » Definitions » Predictability Rank
Comparable Companies
TIGO CABO USM GSAT CCOI TDS LUMN IHS LILA ATUS TMUS SHSE:600941 CMCSA VZ T XTER:DTE TSE:9432 NSE:BHARTIARTL TSE:9433 HKSE:00728
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
9601 South Meridian Boulevard, Englewood, CO, USA, 80112
Website
https://www.dish.com
From its founding in the 1980s, Dish Network has primarily focused on the satellite television business, capitalizing on technological advancements to expand its reach. The firm now serves 7 million U.S. customers. Dish launched an internet-based television offering under the Sling brand in 2015 and now serves about 2 million customers on this platform. Dish's future, however, hinges primarily on the wireless business. The firm has amassed a large portfolio of spectrum licenses over the past 15 years, spending about $30 billion in the process, and is now building a nationwide wireless network. It acquired Sprint's prepaid business and now serves about 8 million customers. Dish plans to merge with EchoStar, a firm it spun out in 2008 that provides satellite-based communications services.
Executives
Paul W Orban officer: SVP & Chief Accounting Officer 9601 SOUTH MERIDIAN BOULEVARD, ENGLEWOOD CO 80112
Ergen Two-year June 2023 Dish Grat 10 percent owner C/O CANTEY M. ERGEN, 9601 S. MERIDIAN BLVD., ENGLEWOOD CO 80112
Thomas A Cullen officer: EVP, Corporate Development DISH NETWORK CORPORATION, 9601 SOUTH MERIDIAN BLVD., ENGLEWOOD CO 80112
Ergen Two-year May 2023 Dish Grat 10 percent owner C/O CANTEY M. ERGEN, TRUSTEE, 9601 S. MERIDIAN BLVD., ENGLEWOOD CO 80112
James Defranco director, officer: Executive Vice President 9601 S. MERIDIAN BLVD., ENGLEWOOD CO 80112
Douglas Balsbough officer: EVP and Chief People Officer 10 FARM SPRINGS ROAD, FARMINGTON CT 06032
Stephen J Bye director 9601 S. MERIDIAN BLVD., ENGLEWOOD CO 80112
Ergen Two-year December 2022 Dish Grat 10 percent owner C/O CANTEY ERGEN, 9601 S. MERIDIAN BLVD., ENGLEWOOD CO 80112
Ergen Two-year June 2022 Dish Grat 10 percent owner C/O CANTEY M. ERGEN, 9601 S. MERIDIAN BLVD., ENGLEWOOD CO 80112
George R Brokaw director DISH NETWORK CORPORATION, 9601 S MERIDIAN BLVD, ENGLEWOOD CO 80112
Ergen Two-year May 2022 Dish Grat 10 percent owner C/O CANTEY M. ERGEN, 9601 S. MERIDIAN BLVD., ENGLEWOOD CO 80112
Narayan Raghu Iyengar officer: EVP & CHIEF OPERATING OFFICER 415 SOUTH 18TH STREET, ST. LOUIS MO 63103
Ergen Two-year December 2021 Dish Grat 10 percent owner C/O DISH NETWORK L.L.C., 9601 S. MERIDIAN BLVD., ENGLEWOOD CO 80112
David A. Scott officer: EVP & Chief HR Officer 9601 S. MERIDIAN BLVD., ENGLEWOOD CO 80112
Ergen Two-year June 2021 Dish Grat 10 percent owner 9601 S. MERIDIAN BLVD., ENGLEWOOD CO 80112