1stdibs.com (1stdibs.com) Predictability Rank

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What is 1stdibs.com Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

1stdibs.com Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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1stdibs.com (1stdibs.com) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Cyclical » Retail - Cyclical » 1stdibs.com Inc (NAS:DIBS) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

51 Astor Place, 3rd Floor, New York, NY, USA, 10003

Website

https://www.1stdibs.com

1stdibs.com Inc is an online marketplace for connecting design lovers with the sellers and makers of vintage, antique, and contemporary furniture, home decor, jewelry, watches, art, and fashion. The company's single reportable and operating segment contains two reporting units; 1stDibs, which consists of the company's online marketplace that enables commerce between sellers and buyers; and Design Manager, which is the company's separate online platform that is used to sell a software solution to interior designers. It generates revenue primarily from fees from seller marketplace services as well as other services, including advertisements and software services.

Executives

Thomas J Etergino	officer: Chief Financial Officer	6033 SCHUMACHER PARK DRIVE, WEST CHESTER OH 45069
Nancy Hood	officer: Chief Marketing Officer	C/O MARRONE BIO INNOVATIONS, INC., 1540 DREW AVENUE, DAVIS CA 95618
Matthew Rubinger	officer: Chief Commercial Officer	51 ASTOR PLACE, 3RD FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10003
Insight Holdings Group, Llc	10 percent owner	1114 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, 36TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10036
David S Rosenblatt	director, officer: Chief Executive Officer	C/O DOUBLECLICK INC.,, 111 EIGHTH AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10011
Alison K. Lipman	officer: Chief People Officer	1STDIBS.COM, INC., 51 ASTOR PLACE, 3RD FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10003
Melanie F Goins	officer: General Counsel and Secretary	136 HYDE STREET, NEWTON HIGHLANDS MA 02461
Carol Lattouf	officer: SVP Operations	51 ASTOR PLACE, 3RD FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10003
Ross A. Paul	officer: Chief Technology Officer	1STDIBS.COM, INC., 51 ASTOR PLACE, 3RD FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10003
Ryan Beauchamp	officer: Chief Product Officer	51 ASTOR PLACE, 3RD FL, NEW YORK NY 10003
Xiaodi T. Zhang	officer: Chief Product Officer	1STDIBS.COM, INC., 51 ASTOR PLACE, 3RD FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10003
Sarah Liebel	officer: Chief Revenue Officer	1STDIBS.COM, INC., 51 ASTOR PLACE, 3RD FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10003
Tu Nguyen	officer: Chief Financial Officer	1STDIBS.COM, INC., 51 ASTOR PLACE, 3RD FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10003
Andrew George Robb	director	51 ASTOR PLACE, 3RD FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10003
Lori A Hickok	director