Flaherty & Crumrine Pref&Inc Allocation (Flaherty & Crumrine Pref&Inc Allocation) Predictability Rank

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What is Flaherty & Crumrine Pref&Inc Allocation Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Flaherty & Crumrine Pref&Inc Allocation Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Flaherty & Crumrine Pref&Inc Allocation (Flaherty & Crumrine Pref&Inc Allocation) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Asset Management » Flaherty & Crumrine Pref&Inc Allocation (NYSE:DFP) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

301 E. Colorado Boulevard, Suite 800, Pasadena, CA, USA, 91101

Website

https://www.preferredincome.com

Flaherty & Crumrine Pref&Inc Allocation is a diversified, closed-end management investment company. Its investment objective is to seek total return, with an emphasis on high current income.

Executives

Bradford S Stone	officer: CFO and Treasurer, other: Affiliate of Inv. Adviser	47 MAPLE ST. SUITE 403, SUMMIT NJ 07901
Robert E Chadwick	officer: CFO, VP & Treasurer	301 E COLORADO BLVD STE 720, PASADENA CA 91101
Robert F Wulf	director	301 E. COLORADO BLVD., SUITE 720, PASADENA CA 91101
Chad Conwell	officer: CCO, VP and Secretary	301 E. COLORADO BLVD., SUITE 720, PASADENA CA 91101
Robert M Ettinger	officer: President	301 E COLORADO BLVD STE 720, PASADENA CA 91101
Morgan Gust	director	C/O COBIZ FINANCIAL INC., 821 SEVENTEENTH STREET, DENVER CO 80202
Donald F Crumrine	director, officer: Chief Executive Officer	301 E COLORADO BLVD STE 720, PASADENA CA 91101
David Gale	director	220 MONTGOMERY STREET, SUITE 426, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94104
Karen Hanovice Hogan	director	301 EAST COLORADO BLVD, SUITE 720, PASADENA CA 91101
Laurie C Lodolo	officer: Asst-CompOfficer/Treas/Sec	301 E. COLORADO BOULEVARD, SUITE 720, PASADENA CA 91101
Flaherty & Crumrine Inc	other: Investment Adviser	301 E. COLORADO BLVD, SUITE 720, PASADENA CA 91101
Robert T. Flaherty	other: Affiliated person Inv. Adviser	301 EAST COLORADO BOULEVARD, SUITE 720, PASADENA CA 91101