What is DocGo Predictability Rank?
Not Rated
Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
DocGo Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
DocGo (DCGO) Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
35 West 35th Street, Floor 6, New York, NY, USA, 10001
DocGo Inc is a provider of last-mile mobile health services and integrated medical mobility solutions. DocGo is disrupting the traditional four-wall healthcare system by providing care at the scale of humanity. Its technology and dedicated field staff of certified health professionals elevate the quality of patient care and drive business efficiencies for facilities, hospital networks, and health insurance providers. With Mobile Health, DocGo empowers the full promise and potential of telehealth by facilitating healthcare treatment, in tandem with a remote physician, in the comfort of a patient's home or workplace.
Executives
| Stephen Sugrue |
officer: Chief Compliance Officer |
35 WEST 35TH STREET, FLOOR 6, NEW YORK NY 10001 |
| Lee Bienstock |
officer: Chief Operating Officer |
35 WEST 35TH STREET, FLOOR 6, NEW YORK NY 10001 |
| Ely D Tendler |
director, officer: General Counsel, Secretary |
STRATEGIC AND LEGAL SERVICES, PLLC, 54 LAWRENCE AVENUE, LAWRENCE NY 11559 |
| Anthony Capone |
officer: President |
106 DUANE ST., #3, NEW YORK NY 10007 |
| Adriaan Stephanus Oberholzer |
officer: Chief Financial Officer |
35 W 35TH STREET, 6TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10001 |
| James M Travers |
director |
C/O FLEETMATICS, 1100 WINTER STREET, 4TH FL, WALTHAM MA 02451 |
| Etalvina Leite |
director |
5477 VIA NICOLA, NEWBURY PARK CA 91320 |
| Michael J Burdiek |
director |
39 PARKER, IRVINE CA 92618 |
| Ira Smedra |
director |
401 N. JUNE STREET, LOS ANGELES CA 90004 |
| Mark Do Merlin |
officer: CMO, Ambulnz Holdings, LLC |
35 W 35TH STREET, NEW YORK NY 10001 |
| Michael S. Witkowski |
officer: Chief Compliance Officer |
PO BOX 10482, NEWBURGH NY 12552 |
| Christopher Fillo |
director |
3110 MAIN STREET, SUITE 310, SANTA MONICA CA 90405 |
| Norman Rosenberg |
officer: CFO, Ambulnz Holdings, LLC |
51 MOUNTAIN AVENUE, MONSEY NY 10952 |
| Stanley Vashovsky |
director, 10 percent owner, officer: Chief Executive Officer |
763 RALEIGH STREET, WOODMERE NY 11598 |
| Steven Katz |
director |
20 REBEL RUN DR, EAST BRUNSWICK NJ 08816 |
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