DBV Technologies (DBV Technologies) Predictability Rank

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What is DBV Technologies Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

DBV Technologies Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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DBV Technologies (DBV Technologies) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Biotechnology » DBV Technologies SA (NAS:DBVT) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

0QAJ:UK DBV:France DBV:Germany

Address

177-181 avenue Pierre Brossolette, Montrouge, FRA, 92120

Website

http://www.dbvtechnologies.com

DBV Technologies SA is a clinical-stage specialty biopharmaceutical company focused on changing the field of immunotherapy by developing a novel technology platform called Viaskin. The therapeutic approach is based on epicutaneous immunotherapy, or EPIT, its proprietary method of delivering biologically active compounds to the immune system through intact skin using Viaskin, an epicutaneous patch (i.e., a skin patch). Viaskin targets specific antigen-presenting immune cells in the skin, called Langerhans cells, that capture the antigen and migrate to the lymph node in order to activate the immune system without passage of the antigen into the bloodstream, minimizing systemic exposure in the body. Its main product candidate is Viaskin Peanut for the treatment of peanut-allergic patients.

Executives

Pharis Mohideen	officer: Chief Medical Officer	C/O OVASCIENCE, INC., 9 FOURTH AVENUE, WALTHAM MA 02451
Virginie Boucinha	officer: Chief Financial Officer	C/O DBV TECHNOLOGIES S.A., 177-181 AVENUE PIERRE BROSSOLETTE, MONTROUGE I0 92120
Timothy E Morris	director	ACELRX PHARMACEUTICALS, INC., 351 GALVESTON DRIVE, REDWOOD CITY CA 94063
Daniel B Soland	director	4560 HORTON STREET,M/S R-422, EMERYVILLE CA 94608
Daniele Guyot-caparros	director	C/O DBV TECHNOLOGIES S.A., 177-181 AVENUE PIERRE BROSSOLETTE, MONTROUGE I0 92120
Baker Brothers Life Sciences Lp	director, 10 percent owner	860 WASHINGTON STREET, 3RD FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10014
Julian Baker	director, 10 percent owner	BAKER BROS. ADVISORS LP, 860 WASHINGTON STREET 3RD FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10014
Felix Baker	director, 10 percent owner	BAKER BROS. ADVISORS LP, 860 WASHINGTON STREET 3RD FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10014
Baker Bros. Advisors (gp) Llc	director, 10 percent owner	860 WASHINGTON STREET, 3RD FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10014
L.p. 667,	director, 10 percent owner	860 WASHINGTON STREET, 3RD FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10014
Baker Bros. Advisors Lp	director, 10 percent owner	860 WASHINGTON STREET, 3RD FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10014
Madduri Ravin Rao	director	C/O AEGLEA BIOTHERAPEUTICS, INC., 901 S. MOPAC EXPRESSWAY, #250, AUSTIN TX 78746
Adora Ndu	director	C/O DBV TECHNOLOGIES S.A., 177-181 AVENUE PIERRE BROSSOLETTE, MONTROUGE I0 92120
Michael Goller	director	C/O BAKER BROTHERS INVESTMENTS, 667 MADISON AVENUE, 21ST FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10065
Daniel Tasse	director, officer: Chief Executive Officer	C/O IKARIA, INC., 6 STATE ROUTE 173, CLINTON NJ 08809