Dave (DAVE) Predictability Rank

View and export this data going back to 2022. Start your Free Trial

What is Dave Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Dave Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Dave Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Dave's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.

Dave (DAVE) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Technology » Software » Dave Inc (NAS:DAVE) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

1265 South Cochran Ave, Los Angeles, CA, USA, 90019

Website

https://www.dave.com

Dave Inc is engaged in offering banking app that offers its customers banking, financial insights, overdraft protection, building credit, and finding side gigs.

Executives

Kyle Beilman	officer: CFO and Secretay	C/O DAVE INC., 1265 SOUTH COCHRAN AVENUE, LOS ANGELES CA 90019
Jason Wilk	director, officer: Chief Executive Officer	C/O DAVE INC., 1265 SOUTH COCHRAN AVENUE, LOS ANGELES CA 90019
Section 32 Fund 1, Lp	10 percent owner	169 UNIVERSITY AVE., PALO ALTO CA 94301
Teresa Luna Aragones	director	C/O TILLY'S, INC., 10 WHATNEY, IRVINE CA 92618
Section 32 Gp 1, Llc	10 percent owner	169 UNIVERSITY AVE., PALO ALTO CA 94301
William J Maris	10 percent owner	2033 SAN ELIJO AVE., #565, CARDIFF-BY-THE-SEA CA 92007
Michael W Pope	director	601 BRANNAN STREET, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94107
Dan Preston	director	C/O METROMILE, INC., 425 MARKET STREET, SUITE 700, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94105
Andrea Mitchell	director	C/O DAVE INC., 1265 SOUTH COCHRAN AVENUE, LOS ANGELES CA 90019
Charles S Paul	director, 10 percent owner	C/O AMC ENTERTAINMENT INC, 920 MAIN ST, KANSAS CITY MO 64105
Peter Offenhauser	director	C/O MAPLES CORPORATE SERVICES LIMITED, PO BOX 309, UGLAND HOUSE, GEORGE TOWN E9 KY1-1104
Janet Kloppenburg	director	C/O MAPLES CORPORATE SERVICES LIMITED, PO BOX 309, UGLAND HOUSE, GEORGE TOWN E9 KY1-1104
Vpc Impact Acquisition Holdings Sponsor Iii, Llc	director, 10 percent owner, other: See Remarks	150 NORTH RIVERSIDE PLAZA, SUITE 5200, CHICAGO IL 60606
Carly Altieri	officer: Chief Financial Officer	C/O MAPLES CORPORATE SERVICES LIMITED, PO BOX 309, UGLAND HOUSE, GEORGE TOWN E9 KY1-1104
Brendan Carroll	director, officer: Co-Chief Executive Officer	C/O VICTORY PARK CAPITAL ADVISORS, LLC, 227 W. MONROE STREET, SUITE 3900, CHICAGO IL 60606