What is Cyteir Therapeutics Predictability Rank?
Not Rated
Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
Cyteir Therapeutics Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
Cyteir Therapeutics (Cyteir Therapeutics) Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
128 Spring Street, Building A, Suite 510, Lexington, MA, USA, 02421
Cyteir Therapeutics Inc is a clinical-stage biotechnology company focused on the development of CYT-0851, an oral investigational drug that inhibits monocarboxylate transporters. CYT-0851 is an investigational monocarboxylate transporter inhibitor or MCT inhibitor, initially evaluated in a phase 1/2 study to treat patients with hematologic malignancies and solid tumors as a monotherapy and in combination with standard-of-care therapies. Inhibiting MCT function in glycolytic cancer cells leads to an accumulation of intracellular lactate that impairs glycolysis and inhibits tumor cell growth, making MCTs an attractive target for cancer therapy.
Executives
| Novo Holdings A/s |
10 percent owner |
TUBORG HAVNEVEJ 19, HELLERUP G7 2900 |
| Joseph S Zakrzewski |
director |
509 WATERVIEW PLACE, NEW HOPE PA 18938 |
| John F Thero |
director |
C/O AMARIN PHARMA, INC., 1430 ROUTE 6, BEDMINSTER NJ 07921 |
| Adam M Veness |
officer: General Counsel |
C/O DIANTHUS THERAPEUTICS, INC., 7 TIMES SQUARE, 43RD FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10036 |
| Stephen H. Sands |
director |
128 SPRING STREET, BUILDING A, SUITE 510, LEXINGTON MA 02421 |
| Jeffrey Humphrey |
director |
C/O CONSTELLATION PHARMACEUTICALS, INC., 215 FIRST STREET, SUITE 200, CAMBRIDGE MA 02142 |
| Droia Invest Ii Scsp |
10 percent owner |
28 BOULEVARD JOSEPH II, LUXEMBOURG N4 L-1840 |
| Janwillem Naesens |
director |
128 SPRING STREET, BUILDING A, SUITE 510, LEXINGTON MA 02421 |
| Sa Ihl |
10 percent owner |
28 BOULEVARD JOSEPH II, LUXEMBOURG N4 L-1840 |
| Karen Hong |
director |
69 PARKSIDE DRIVE, PRINCETON NJ 08540 |
| Bv Wepaven |
10 percent owner |
BRUSSELSESTEENWEG 11, MEISE C9 1860 |
| Luc Verelst |
10 percent owner |
28 BOULEVARD JOSEPH II, LUXEMBOURG N4 L-1840 |
| Df Ii Gp Sarl |
10 percent owner |
28 BOULEVARD JOSEPH II, LUXEMBOURG N4 L-1840 |
| Timothy Romberger |
director |
128 SPRING STREET, BUILDING A, SUITE 510, LEXINGTON MA 02421 |
| Racquel Bracken |
director |
128 SPRING STREET, BUILDING A, SUITE 510, LEXINGTON MA 02421 |
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