What is Cyclo Therapeutics Predictability Rank?
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Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
Cyclo Therapeutics Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
Cyclo Therapeutics (Cyclo Therapeutics) Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
6714 North West 16th Street, Suite B, Gainesville, FL, USA, 32653
Cyclo Therapeutics Inc is a clinical-stage biotechnology firm. The company develops cyclodextrin-based products for the treatment of disease. Its drug candidate, Trappsol Cyclo, treats Niemann-Pick Type C disease (NPC). Its other products include Trappsol HPB, Trappsol Fine Chemical, and Aquaplex.
Executives
| Vivien Wong |
director |
6C CHATEAUX CIRCLE, SCARSDALE NY 10583 |
| Rafael Holdings, Inc. |
10 percent owner |
520 BROAD STREET, NEWARK NJ 07120 |
| William Conkling |
director |
C/O RAFAEL HOLDINGS, INC., 520 BROAD ST, NEWARK NJ 07102 |
| Jeffrey Tate |
director, officer: Chief Executive Officer |
C/O CTD HOLDINGS, INC., 27317 NW 78TH AVENUE, HIGH SPRINGS FL 32643 |
| Francis Patrick Ostronic |
director |
932 HUNGERFORD DRIVE, SUITE 28A, ROCKVILLE MD 20850 |
| Markus Sieger |
director |
BEUTSTWEG 12, CH-8032, ZURICH V8 000000000 |
| N Scott Fine |
director |
600 3RD AVE, NEW YORK NY 10016 |
| Sharon Hemond Hrynkow |
officer: SVP for Medical Affairs |
4816 KING SOLOMON DRIVE, ANNADALE VA 22003 |
| Lise Lund Kjems |
officer: Chief Medical Officer |
91 ROLLINGWOOD LN., CONCORD MA 01742 |
| Joshua M Fine |
officer: Chief Financial Officer |
21 HEMMELSKAMP ROAD, WILTON CT 06897 |
| Armistice Capital Master Fund Ltd. |
10 percent owner |
C/O ARMISTICE CAPITAL, LLC, 510 MADISON AVENUE, 7TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022 |
| Michael Eric Lisjak |
officer: Chief Regulatory Officer |
12 ROOSEVELT AVENUE, OLD GREENWICH CT 06870 |
| Steven Boyd |
10 percent owner |
510 MADISON AVENUE, 7TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022 |
| Armistice Capital, Llc |
10 percent owner |
510 MADISON AVENUE, 7TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022 |
| L.p. Novit, |
10 percent owner |
966 HUNGERFORD DRIVE, ROCKVILLE MD 20850 |
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