Cyclerion Therapeutics (Cyclerion Therapeutics) Predictability Rank

View and export this data going back to 2019. Start your Free Trial

What is Cyclerion Therapeutics Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Cyclerion Therapeutics Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Cyclerion Therapeutics Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Cyclerion Therapeutics's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.

Cyclerion Therapeutics (Cyclerion Therapeutics) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Biotechnology » Cyclerion Therapeutics Inc (NAS:CYCN) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

245 First Street, 18th Floor, Cambridge, MA, USA, 02142

Website

https://www.cyclerion.com

Cyclerion Therapeutics Inc is a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company harnessing the power of soluble guanylate cyclase (sGC) pharmacology to discover, develop and commercialize breakthrough treatments for serious and orphan diseases. Its focus is on enabling the full therapeutic potential of next-generation sGC stimulators. Its pipeline products include Olinciguat, Praliciguat, and others.

Executives

Terrance Mcguire	director	C/O POLARIS VENTURE PARTNERS LP, 1000 WINTER STREET, SUITE 3350, WALTHAM MA 02154
Steven Hyman	director	C/O VOYAGER THERAPEUTICS, INC., 75 SIDNEY STREET, CAMBRIDGE MA 02139
Andreas Busch	officer: Chief Scientific Officer	C/O CYCLERION THERAPEUTICS, INC., 301 BINNEY STREET, CAMBRIDGE MA 02142
George H Conrades	director	500 TECHNOLOGY SQUARE, FIFTH FLOOR, CAMBRIDGE MA 02139
Stephanie Lovell	director	C/O CYCLERION THERAPEUTICS, INC., 301 BINNEY STREET, CAMBRIDGE MA 02142
Ole Isacson	director	CYCLERION THERAPEUTICS, INC., 301 BINNEY STREET, CAMBRIDGE MA 02142
Kevin Churchwell	director	C/O CYCLERION THERAPEUTICS, CAMBRIDGE MA 02142
Michael Mendelsohn	director	C/O CYCLERION THERAPEUTICS, INC., 301 BINNEY STREET, CAMBRIDGE MA 02142
Peter M Hecht	director, officer: Chief Executive Officer	C/O CYCLERION THERAPEUTICS, INC., 301 BINNEY STREET, CAMBRIDGE MA 02142
Slate Path Capital Lp	10 percent owner	717 5TH AVENUE, 16TH FL., NEW YORK NY 10022
Errol B Desouza	director	215 COLLEGE ROAD, PARAMUS NJ 07652
Anjeza Gjino	officer: Chief Financial Officer	C/O CYCLERION THERAPEUTICS, INC., 245 FIRST STREET, 18TH FLOOR, CAMBRIDGE MA 02142
Christopher I Wright	officer: Chief Medical Officer	C/O CYCLERION THERAPEUTICS, INC., 245 FIRST STREET, 18TH FLOOR, CAMBRIDGE MA 02142
Cheryl Gault	officer: Chief Operating Officer	CYCLERION THERAPEUTICS, INC., 245 FIRST STREET, 18TH FLOOR, CAMBRIDGE MA 02142
Mark G Currie	officer: President and CSO	C/O CYCLERION THERAPEUTICS, INC., 301 BINNEY STREET, CAMBRIDGE MA 02142