What is CPI Aerostructures Predictability Rank?
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Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
CPI Aerostructures Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
CPI Aerostructures (CPI Aerostructures) Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
91 Heartland Boulevard, Edgewood, NY, USA, 11717
CPI Aerostructures Inc is engaged in the manufacturing of structural aircraft parts for fixed-wing aircraft and helicopters in both the commercial and defense markets in the United States. It also provides engineering, program management, supply chain management and kitting, and Maintenance Repair and Overhaul (MRO) services. CPI also acts as a subcontractor to prime aircraft manufacturers in the production of commercial aircraft parts. CPI Aero supplies the E-2D Advanced Hawkeye surveillance aircraft, the A-10 Thunderbolt attack jet, the Gulfstream G650, the UH-60 BLACK HAWK helicopter, and the S-92 helicopter among others.
Executives
| Pamela Levesque |
director |
91 HEARTLAND BOULEVARD, EDGEWOOD NY 11717 |
| Richard C Rosenjack |
director |
C/O TRIUMPH GROUP, INC., 899 CASSATT ROAD, SUITE 210, BERWYN PA 19312 |
| Paul Packer |
10 percent owner |
C/O GLOBIS CAPITAL PARTNERS LP, 60 BROAD ST, NEW YORK NY 10004 |
| Richard S Caswell |
director |
C/O CPI AEROSTRUCTURES, INC., 91 HEARTLAND BOULEVARD, EDGEWOOD NY 11717 |
| Terry Dean Stinson |
director |
C/O LENNOX INTERNATIONAL INC., 2140 LAKE PARK BOULEVARD, RICHARDSON TX 75080-2254 |
| Dorith Hakim |
director, officer: CEO and President |
C/O GRAUBARD MILLER, 405 LEXINGTON AVENUE - 11TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10174 |
| Bond E Carey |
director |
3210 CYPRESS MARSH DRIVE, FORT MYERS FL 33905 |
| Michael Faber |
director |
701 PENNSYLVANIA AVENUE NW, SUITE 900, WASHINGTON DC DC 20004 |
| Walter Paulick |
director |
30 TERRY PL, RIVERHEAD NY 11901 |
| Eric Rosenfeld |
director |
777 THIRD AVENUE, 37TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10017 |
| Andrew L Davis |
officer: Chief Financial Officer |
C/O EMERSON RADIO CORP., 3 UNIVERSITY PLAZA, SUITE 405, HACKENSACK NJ 07601 |
| Thomas E Powers |
officer: Acting Chief Financial Officer |
C/O TRIUMPH GROUP, INC., 899 CASSATT ROAD, SUITE 210, BERWYN PA 19312 |
| Dan Azmon |
officer: Chief Financial Officer |
600 THIRD AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10016 |
| Janet Katherine Cooper |
director |
8111 LYNDALE AVENUE SOUTH, BLOOMINGTON MN 55420 |
| Awm Investment Company, Inc. |
10 percent owner |
527 MADISON AVENUE, SUITE 2600, NEW YORK NY 10022 |
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