Cavitation Technologies (Cavitation Technologies) Predictability Rank

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What is Cavitation Technologies Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Cavitation Technologies Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Cavitation Technologies (Cavitation Technologies) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Industrials » Industrial Products » Cavitation Technologies Inc (OTCPK:CVAT) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

10019 Canoga Avenue, Chatsworth, CA, USA, 91311

Website

http://www.ctinanotech.com

Cavitation Technologies Inc develops, patents, and commercializes the proprietary technology for large-scale liquid processing applications. The firm has commercialized its proprietary technology for refining vegetable oils by providing domestic and foreign refining facilities with a firm's Nano Neutralization technology and cavitation systems comprising the Nano Reactor. Its technologies can be applied to several other fluid-processing industries that will benefit from increased yields, lowered processing costs, and improved quality. It has filed patent applications related to edible oil refining, renewable fuel production, both alcoholic and non-alcoholic beverage processing and enhancement, and petroleum upgrading. Its component comprises of Nano Reactor and LPN.

Executives

Naum Voloshin	officer: Chief Financial Officer	10019 CANOGA AVENUE, CHATSWORTH CA 91311
Roman Gordon	director, 10 percent owner, officer: CEO, Secretary	10019 CANOGA AVENUE, CHATSWORTH CA 91311
Todd Zelek	director, officer: CEO	730 SOUTH SAN RAFAEL AVENUE, PASADENA CA 91105
James W Fuller	director	C/O BAYTREE CAPITAL ASSOCIATES LLC, 40 WALL STREET, 58TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10005
Igor Gorodnitsky	director, 10 percent owner, officer: President	10019 CANOGA AVENUE, CHATSWORTH CA 91311
R L Hartshorn	director, 10 percent owner, officer: CFO	10019 CANOGA AVENUE, CHATSWORTH CA 91311
Jose Antonio Castro	director, 10 percent owner, officer: CEO & CFO	3702 SOUTH VIRGINIA STREET, #G12-401, RENO NV 89502
Zhang Haiming	director, 10 percent owner, officer: Chief Technology Officer	3702 SOUTH VIRGINIA STREET, #G12-401, RENO NV 89502