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Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks | |
---|---|---|---|
Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
% Out of All 2403 Stocks | 3.3% | 2.9% | 3.7% | 3.3% | 3.3% | 3.7% | 3.3% | 76.3% | 100% |
% that are in Loss (10y) | 3% | 10% | 8% | 9% | 11% | 18% | 16% | 45% | 37% |
Average Gain (10y) | 364.6% | 330.9% | 278.0% | 235.1% | 243.5% | 227.8% | 154.8% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
Median Gain (10y) | 238.5% | 193.5% | 171.0% | 159.0% | 132.5% | 113.5% | 87.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
Maximum Gainer | 2228.0% | 2547.0% | 2452.0% | 2852.0% | 2432.0% | 1892.0% | 1807.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
Maximum Loser | -82.0% | -53.0% | -67.0% | -100.0% | -83.0% | -100.0% | -78.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
Annualized Average Gain | 15.4% | 14.6% | 13.2% | 12.0% | 12.2% | 11.7% | 9.1% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
Annualized Median Gain | 12.1% | 10.6% | 9.8% | 9.3% | 8.2% | 7.3% | 6.0% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of ValuationsThank you for viewing the detailed overview of Citrix Systems's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.
Jason Alexander Smith | officer: EVP & Chief Financial Officer | C/O CITRIX SYSTEMS, INC., 851 WEST CYPRESS CREEK ROAD, FORT LAUDERDALE FL 33309 |
Michael Arenth | officer: EVP, SaaS Strategy | C/O CITRIX SYSTEMS, INC., 851 WEST CYPRESS CREEK ROAD, FORT LAUDERDALE FL 33309 |
David J Henshall | officer: Senior Vice President and CFO | 18880 HOMESTEAD ROAD, CUPERTINO CA 95014 |
Sridhar Mullapudi | officer: EVP, Product Management | C/O CITRIX SYSTEMS, INC., 851 WEST CYPRESS CREEK ROAD, FORT LAUDERDALE FL 33309 |
Arlen Shenkman | officer: EVP & CFO | C/O CITRIX SYSTEMS, INC., 851 WEST CYRESS CREEK ROAD, FORT LAUDERDALE FL 33309 |
Mark J Ferrer | officer: EVP, Chief Revenue Officer | 45025 AVIATION DR, STE 300, DULLES VA 20166 |
Mark J. Schmitz | officer: EVP & Chief Operating Officer | C/O CITRIX SYSTEMS, INC., 851 WEST CYPRESS CREEK ROAD, FORT LAUDERDALE FL 33309 |
Timothy A. Minahan | officer: CMO | 13960 HAYSTACK LANE, MILTON GA 30004 |
Hector Lima | officer: EVP, Customer Experience | C/O CITRIX SYSTEMS, INC., 851 WEST CYPRESS CREEK ROAD, FORT LAUDERDALE FL 33309 |
Antonio G. Gomes | officer: SVP & General Counsel | 345 HARVARD STREET, UNIT 2AB, CAMBRIDGE MA 02138 |
Paul J. Hough | officer: SVP & Chief Product Officer | 851 WEST CYPRESS CREEK ROAD, FORT LAUDERDALE FL 33309 |
Jessica Soisson | officer: VP & Corporate Controller | 9836 EQUUS CIRCLE, BOYNTON BEACH FL 33472 |
W. Joseph Kim | officer: EVP & Chief Technology Officer | 7171, AUSTIN TX 78735-6140 |
Donna Nappen Kimmel | officer: SVP & Chief People Officer | 529 PLEASANT STREET, MS B-7, ATTLEBORO MA 02703 |
Knowling Robert E Jr | director | C/O HEWLETT-PACKARD CO, 3000 HANOVER STREET, PALO ALTO CA 94304 |
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