Custom Truck One Source (Custom Truck One Source) Predictability Rank

View and export this data going back to 2017. Start your Free Trial

What is Custom Truck One Source Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Custom Truck One Source Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Custom Truck One Source Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Custom Truck One Source's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.

Custom Truck One Source (Custom Truck One Source) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Industrials » Business Services » Custom Truck One Source Inc (NYSE:CTOS) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

7701 Independence Avenue, Kansas, MO, USA, 64125

Website

https://www.customtruck.com

Custom Truck One Source Inc is a one-stop-shop provider of specialty equipment in the electric utility transmission and distribution, forestry, telecom, waste management, rail, and infrastructure end-markets in North America. The company's segment includes Equipment Rental Solutions (ERS), Truck and Equipment Sales (TES), and Aftermarket Parts and Services (APS). It generates maximum revenue from the TES segment. Geographically, it derives a majority of revenue from the United States.

Executives

Christopher J Eperjesy	officer: Chief Financial Officer	505 HIGHWAY 169 NORTH, PLYMOUTH MN 55441
Marshall Heinberg	director	1 CORPORATE AVENUE, ROWVILLE C3 3178
Mark Ein	director, 10 percent owner, officer: Chairman and CEO
Ecp Controlco, Llc	10 percent owner	40 BEECHWOOD ROAD, SUMMIT NJ 07901
Raymond Todd Barrett	officer: Chief Accounting Officer	6714 POINT INVERNESS WAY, STE 220, FORT WAYNE IN 46804
Paul M Jolas	officer: EVP, General Counsel & Sec	331 N. MAIN ST., EULESS TX 76039
Mary M. Jackson	director	7799 LEESBURG PIKE, SUITE 300 NORTH, FALLS CHURCH VA 22043
Blackstone Holdings Iii L.p.	other: See Remarks	C/O BLACKSTONE INC., 345 PARK AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10154
Blackstone Energy Partners Nq L.p.	10 percent owner	C/O THE BLACKSTONE GROUP INC., 345 PARK AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10154
Blackstone Holdings Ii L.p.	10 percent owner	C/O BLACKSTONE INC., 345 PARK AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10154
Ecp Cardinal Holdings, Lp	director, 10 percent owner	40 BEECHWOOD ROAD, SUMMIT NJ 07901
Thomas R. Rich	officer: EVP - Rentals	C/O NESCO HOLDINGS, INC., 6714 POINTE INVERNESS WAY, SUITE 220, FORT WAYNE IN 46804
James Carlsen	officer: CIO	C/O NESCO HOLDINGS, INC., 6714 POINTE INVERNESS WAY, SUITE 220, FORT WAYNE IN 46804
Blackstone Family Investment Partnership Vi-nq Esc L.p.	10 percent owner	C/O THE BLACKSTONE GROUP INC., 345 PARK AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10154
Bcp Vi-nq Side-by-side Gp L.l.c.	10 percent owner	C/O THE BLACKSTONE GROUP INC., 345 PARK AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10154