Citrine Global (Citrine Global) Predictability Rank

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What is Citrine Global Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Citrine Global Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Citrine Global (Citrine Global) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Defensive » Consumer Packaged Goods » Citrine Global Corp (OTCPK:CTGL) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

5 Golden Beach, Caesarea, ISR, 3088900

Website

https://www.citrine-global.com

Citrine Global Corp is a plant-based wellness and pharma solutions company. Its product line includes GreenFeels; SmokLy; Medicinal Mushrooms; Booster; Personal Protection and Balance and Calm products.

Executives

David Kretzmer	director	350 FIFTH AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10118
Ilan Ben-ishay	director	C/O CITRINE S A L, INVESTMENT & HOLDINGS LTD 3 HAMELACHA ST, TEL AVIV L3 6721503
Yaron Pitaru	10 percent owner	C/O WEALTHSTONE HOLDINGS LTD,, 3 HAMELACHA, TEL AVIV L3 10036
Soffer Ora Meir	director, 10 percent owner	C/O CITRINE S A L, INVESTMENT & HOLDINGS LTD, 3 HAMELAC ST, TEL AVIV L3 6721503
Golden Holdings Neto Ltd	10 percent owner	18 BAALEI MELACHA, HAIFA L3 3223016
Citrine S A L Investment & Holdings Ltd	10 percent owner	3 HAMELACHA ST, TEL AVIV L3 6721503
Wealthstone Private Equity Ltd	10 percent owner	3 HAMELACHA ST, TEL AVIV L3 6721503
Wealthstone Holdings Ltd	10 percent owner	3 HAMELACHA, TEL AVIV L3 6721503
Beezz Home Technologies Ltd	10 percent owner	KEREM MAHARAL, MOSHAV L3 3084000
Ilanit Halperin	director	C/O CITRINE S A L, INVESTMENT & HOLDINGS LTD, 3 HAMELACHA, TEL AVIV L3 6721503
Yossef De-levy	director	1140 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK NY 10036
Oren Traistman	director	1140 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK NY 10036
Tali Dinar	officer: Chief Financial Officer	C/O MICRONET ENERTEC TECHNOLOGIES, INC., 70 KINDERKAMACK ROAD, EMERSON NJ 07630
Marius Nacht	10 percent owner	18 YEHEZKEL ST, TEL AVIV-YAFO L3 6259524
Zvi Yemini	director, officer: Chief Executive Officer	1140 AVENUE OF THE AMERICAS, NEW YORK NY 10036