EIDP (CTAPA.PFD) Predictability Rank

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What is EIDP Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

EIDP Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

EIDP Predictability Rank Related Terms

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EIDP (CTAPA.PFD) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Basic Materials » Agriculture » EIDP Inc (NYSE:CTApA.PFD) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

CTApB.PFD:USA

Address

9330 Zionsville Road, Indianapolis, IN, USA, 46268

Website

https://www.dupont.com

EIDP Inc formerly, E.I. du Pont de Nemours & Co provides Agricultural solutions to the farmers. The company operates in two segments: seed and crop protection. The seed segment develops and supplies commercial seed combining superior germplasm with advanced traits to produce high yield potential for farmers, while the crop protection segment supplies products to protect crop yields against weeds, insects, and disease. Some of its products include Corn, Soybean, oilseeds, Fungicides, Herbicides, and Insecticides. Its geographical segments include North America, EMEA(Europe, the Middle East, and Africa), Latin America, and the Asia Pacific. Nearly half of the revenue comes from North America.

Executives

Rajan Gajaria	officer: EVP, Business Platforms	C/O CORTEVA, INC., 974 CENTRE ROAD, BLDG. 735, WILMINGTON DE 19805
Fuerer Cornel B	officer: SVP, Gen Counsel and Secretary	C/O CORTEVA, INC., 974 CENTRE ROAD, BLDG. 735, WILMINGTON DE 19805
Gregory R Page	director	EATON CENTER, 1111 SUPERIOR AVENUE, CLEVELAND OH 44114
Lois D Juliber	director	1007 MARKET ST, WILMINGTON DE 19898
Michael O. Johanns	director	DEERE & COMPANY, ONE JOHN DEERE PLACE, MOLINE IL 61265
Collins James C. Jr.	director, officer: Chief Executive Officer	1007 MARKET STREET, D-9058, WILMINGTON DE 19898
Gregory R Friedman	officer: Executive VP, CFO	C/O CORTEVA, INC., 974 CENTRE ROAD, BLDG. 735, WILMINGTON DE 19805
Timothy P Glenn	officer: EVP, Chief Commercial Officer	C/O CORTEVA, INC., 974 CENTRE ROAD, BLDG. 735, WILMINGTON DE 19805
Pat Ward	director	500 JACKSON STREET, COLUMBUS IN 47201
Lee M Thomas	director	133 PEACHTREE ST NE, 41ST FL, ATLANTA GA 30303
Robert A Brown	director	1007 MARKET STREET, D-9000, WILMINGTON DE 19898
Lamberto Andreotti	director	BRISTOL-MYERS SQUIBB CO, 345 PARK AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10154
Marcos M Lutz	director	C/O CORTEVA AGRISCIENCE, CHESTNUT RUN PLAZA, 735, 974 CENTRE RD, WILMINGTON DE 19805
Rebecca B. Liebert	director	PPG INDUSTRIES, INC., ONE PPG PLACE, PITTSBURGH PA 15272
Nayaki R Nayyar	director	C/O VERITONE, INC., 575 ANTON BOULEVARD, SUITE 100, COSTA MESA CA 92626