CSW Industrials (CSW Industrials) Predictability Rank

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What is CSW Industrials Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

CSW Industrials Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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CSW Industrials (CSW Industrials) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Industrials » Industrial Products » CSW Industrials Inc (NAS:CSWI) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

UCI:Germany

Address

5420 Lyndon B. Johnson Freeway, Suite 500, Dallas, TX, USA, 75240

Website

https://www.cswindustrials.com

CSW Industrials Inc is a diversified industrial growth company with well-established, scalable platforms and domain expertise across three segments, Contractor Solutions, Engineered Building Solutions, and Specialized Reliability Solutions. The company's Contractor Solutions segment involves manufacturing efficient and performance-enhancing products for residential and commercial HVAC/R and plumbing applications, which are designed for professional end-use customers. Majority of the company revenue is generated from Contractor Solutions segment from US markets.

Executives

Joseph B Armes	director, officer: Chief Executive Officer	5420 LYNDON B, JOHNSON FREEWAY, SUITE 500, DALLAS TX 75240
James E Perry	officer: EVP, CFO	14221 N DALLAS PARKWAY, SUITE 1100, DALLAS TX 75254
Luke Alverson	officer: See Remarks	5400 LYNDON B. JOHNSON FRWY., STE. 1300, DALLAS TX 75240
Danielle Garde	officer: SVP, Chief People Officer	5420 LYNDON B JOHNSON FWY #500, DALLAS TX 75240
Anne Motsenbocker	director	1300 W SAM HOUSTON PARKWAY, SUITE 300, HOUSTON TX 77042
Bobby Griffin	director	5420 LYNDON B JOHNSON FWY#500, DALLAS TX 75240
Michael R Gambrell	director	2030 DOW CENTER, MIDLAND MI 48674
Storch Debra Von	director	5420 LBJ FREEWAY, STE 500, DALLAS TX 75240
Robert M Swartz	director	14911 QUORUM, SUITE 400, DALLAS TX 75254
Terry L Johnston	director	2140 LAKE PARK BLVD., RICHARDSON TX 75080
Jay Kent Sweezey	director	5420 LBJ FREEWAY, SUITE 500, DALLAS TX 75240
Greggory W Branning	officer: EVP, CFO	1293 SOUTH MAIN STREET, AKRON OH 44301
Christopher J Mudd	officer: See Remarks	5400 LBJ FREEWAY, SUITE 1300, DALLAS TX 75240
William F Quinn	director
Craig James Foster	officer: See Remarks	14612 LANDIS LAKES DRIVE, LOUISVILLE KY 40245