What is Clarus Therapeutics Holdings Predictability Rank?
Not Rated
Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
Clarus Therapeutics Holdings Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
Clarus Therapeutics Holdings (Clarus Therapeutics Holdings) Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
555 Skokie Boulevard, Suite 340, Northbrook, IL, USA, 60062
Clarus Therapeutics Holdings Inc is a pharmaceutical company with expertise in developing androgen and metabolic therapies for men and women, including potential therapies for orphan indications. The company is focused on focused on the commercialization of JATENZO (testosterone undecanoate), the first and only oral testosterone replacement, or testosterone replacement therapy, and JATENZO is the sole source of company's revenue.
Executives
| Thomas Mcnerney & Partners Lp |
10 percent owner |
45 S. 7TH ST., SUITE 3060, MINNEAPOLIS MN 55402 |
| Kimberly M Murphy |
director |
101 EAST KENNEDY BLVD., SUITE 2800, TAMPA FL 33602 |
| Elizabeth Cermak |
director |
1414 RALEIGH ROAD, SUITE 400, CHAPEL HILL NC 27517 |
| Prygocki Mark A Sr |
director |
C/O MEDICS, 8125 N. HAYDEN RD, SCOTTSDALE AZ 85258 |
| John Kenneth Amory |
director |
C/O CLARUS THERAPEUTICS HOLDINGS, INC., 555 SKOKIE BLVD, SUITE 340, NORTHBROOK IL 60662 |
| Robert E. Dudley |
director, officer: Chief Executive Officer |
555 SKOKIE BOULEVARD, SUITE 340, NORTHBROOK IL 60062 |
| Joseph Hernandez |
director |
C/O MICROLIN BIO, INC., NEW YORK NY 10022 |
| Richard D Peterson |
officer: Chief Financial Officer |
1110 WEST COMMERCIAL BOULEVARD, FORT LAUDERDALE FL 33309 |
| Frank Jaeger |
officer: Chief Commercial Officer |
CLARUS THERAPEUTICS HOLDINGS, INC., 555 SKOKIE BLVD, SUITE 340, NORTHBROOK IL 60662 |
| Steven A. Bourne |
officer: Chief Administrative Officer |
555 SKOKIE BOULEVARD, SUITE 340, NORTHBROOK IL 60062 |
| Ffi Fund Ltd |
10 percent owner |
DMS HOUSE, 20 GENESIS CLOSE, GRAND CAYMAN, GEORGE TOWN E9 KY1-1208 |
| Thomas, Mcnerney & Partners Ii L.p. |
10 percent owner |
45 SOUTH 7TH STREET, SUITE 3060, Minneapolis MN 55402 |
| Thomas, Mcnerney & Partners Ii, Llc |
10 percent owner |
45 SOUTH SEVENTH STREET, SUITE 3060, MINNEAPOLIS MN 55402 |
| Tmp Nominee Ii, Llc |
10 percent owner |
45 SOUTH SEVENTH STREET, SUITE 3060, MINNEAPOLIS MN 55402 |
| Tmp Associates Ii Lp |
10 percent owner |
45 SOUTH SEVENTH STREET, SUITE 3060, MINNEAPOLIS MN 55402 |
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