Corvus Pharmaceuticals (Corvus Pharmaceuticals) Predictability Rank

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What is Corvus Pharmaceuticals Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Corvus Pharmaceuticals Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Corvus Pharmaceuticals (Corvus Pharmaceuticals) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Biotechnology » Corvus Pharmaceuticals Inc (NAS:CRVS) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

C17:Germany

Address

863 Mitten Road, Suite 102, Burlingame, CA, USA, 94010

Website

https://www.corvuspharma.com

Corvus Pharmaceuticals Inc is a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical engaged in developing drugs and antibodies that target the most critical cellular elements of the immune system. It focuses on the development of immune modulator product candidates to treat COVID-19, T-cell lymphomas, other cancers and autoimmune diseases. The company's lead product candidate is CPI-006 which is a potent humanized monoclonal antibody that is designed to react with a specific site on CD73. Its other product candidates are CPI-818, CPI-935, CPI-182 and Ciforadenant.

Executives

Linda S Grais	director	86 ALEJANDRA AVE, ATHERTON CA 94027
William Benton Jones	officer: See Remarks	863 MITTEN ROAD, SUITE 102, BURLINGAME CA 94010
Leiv Lea	officer: Chief Financial Officer	PHARMACYCLICS INC, 995 E ARQUES AVE, SUNNYVALE CA 94085-4521
Miller Richard A Md	director, officer: President and CEO	PHARMACYCLICS INC, 995 E ARQUES AVE, SUNNYVALE CA 94085-4521
Ecor1 Capital, Llc	10 percent owner	357 TEHAMA STREET #3, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94103
Peter A. Thompson	director, 10 percent owner	C/O ANTHERA PHARMACEUTICALS, INC., 25801 INDUSTRIAL BOULEVARD, SUITE B, HAYWARD CA 94545
Orbimed Advisors Llc	director	601 LEXINGTON AVENUE, 54TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022
Edith P. Mitchell	director	1640 MARENGO ST., LOS ANGELES CA 90033
Novo Holdings A/s	10 percent owner	TUBORG HAVNEVEJ 19, HELLERUP G7 2900
Mehrdad Mobasher	officer: Chief Medical Officer	863 MITTEN ROAD, BURLINGAME CA 94010
Adams Street Partners Llc	10 percent owner	ONE NORTH WACKER DRIVE, STE 2700, CHICAGO IL 60606-2807
Terry P Gould	director, 10 percent owner	C/O ONCOMED PHARMACEUTICALS, INC., 800 CHESAPEAKE DRIVE, REDWOOD CITY CA 94063
Joseph J Buggy	officer: EVP Discovery Research	CORVUS PHARMACEUTICALS, INC., 863 MITTEN ROAD, SUITE 102, BURLINGAME CA 94010
Daniel W. Hunt	officer: SVP, Chief Business Officer	863 MITTEN ROAD, SUITE 102, BURLINGAME CA 94010
Erik J. Verner	officer: V.P., Chemistry Research	863 MITTEN ROAD, SUITE 102, BURLINGAME CA 94010