CreditRiskMonitor.com (CreditRiskMonitor.com) Predictability Rank

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What is CreditRiskMonitor.com Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

CreditRiskMonitor.com Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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CreditRiskMonitor.com (CreditRiskMonitor.com) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Technology » Software » CreditRiskMonitor.com Inc (OTCPK:CRMZ) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

704 Executive Boulevard, Suite A, Valley Cottage, NY, USA, 10989

Website

https://www.creditriskmonitor.com

CreditRiskMonitor.com Inc is engaged in the provision of business-to-business Internet-based services for credit and supply chain and financial professionals. The services include financial risk analysis and news service. It provides its services to entities based in the United States. In addition, it is also involved in the re-distribution of international credit reports in the United States.

Executives

Lisa A. Reisman	director	704 EXECUTIVE BLVD., SUITE A, VALLEY COTTAGE NY 10989-2023
Brigitte W. Muehlmann	director	704 EXECUTIVE BLVD., SUITE A, VALLEY COTTAGE NY 10989-2023
Richard A Lippe	director	9 NOME DRIVE, WOODBURY NY 11797
Michael Ilan Flum	officer: SR. VICE PRESIDENT & COO	704 EXECUTIVE BLVD SUITE A, VALLEY COTTAGE NY 10989
William B Danner	officer: Chief Operating Officer	704 EXECUTIVE BLVD., VALLEY COTTAGE NY 10989
Lawrence Fensterstock	officer: Snr. VP, CFO and Secretary	704 EXECUTIVE BOULEVARD, SUITE A, VALLEY COTTAGE NY 10989
Joshua Matthew Flum	director	704 EXECUTIVE BOULEVARD, VALLEY COTTAGE NY 10989
Andrew Joseph Melnick	director	704 EXECUTIVE BOULEVARD, VALLEY COTTAGE NY 10989
Jeffrey S Geisenheimer	director	704 EXECUTIVE BOULEVARD, VALLEY COTTAGE NY 10989
Richard Joseph James	director	704 EXECUTIVE BOULEVARD, SUITE A, VALLEY COTTAGE NY 10989
Leslie Charm	director	704 EXECUTIVE BOULEVARD, SUITE A, VALLEY COTTAGE NY 10989
Jerome S Flum	director, 10 percent owner, officer: COB, CEO & President	110 JERICHO TURNPIKE, SUITE 202, FLORAL PARK NY 11001
Partners Flum	10 percent owner	704 EXECUTIVE BOULEVARD, SUITE A, VALLEY COTTAGE NY 10989