Cornerstone Total Return Fund (Cornerstone Total Return Fund) Predictability Rank

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What is Cornerstone Total Return Fund Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Cornerstone Total Return Fund Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Cornerstone Total Return Fund (Cornerstone Total Return Fund) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Asset Management » Cornerstone Total Return Fund Inc (AMEX:CRF) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

225 Pictoria Drive, Suite 450, Cincinnati, OH, USA, 45246

Website

http://www.cornerstonetotalreturnfund.com

Cornerstone Total Return Fund Inc is a diversified closed-end management company. Its objective is to seek capital appreciation with current income as a secondary objective. The company invests in sectors such as Information Technology; Health Care; Financials; Communication Services; Industrials; Utilities; Energy; Real Estate and others.

Executives

Matthew Morris	director	1905 SHARP PL, HOUSTON TX 77019
Joshua Bradshaw	director	1075 HENDERSONVILLE ROAD, SUITE 250, ASHEVILLE NC 28803
Brian James Lutes	officer: Treasurer	C/O ULTIMUS FUND SOLUTIONS, LLC, 225 PICTORIA DRIVE, SUITE 450, CINCINNATI OH 45246
Daniel Bradshaw	director	1075 HENDERSONVILLE ROAD, SUITE 250, ASHEVILLE NC 28803
Wilcox Glenn W Sr	director	ONE WEST PACK SQUARE SUITE 1700, ASHEVILLE NC 28801
Ralph W Bradshaw	director, officer: President	1075 HENDERSONVILLE ROAD, SUITE 250, ASHEVILLE NC 28803
Marcia Emilia Malzahn	director	16494 73RD AVENUE N, MAPLE GROVE MN 55311
Hoyt M. Peters	officer: Secretary	1075 HENDERSONVILLE ROAD, ASHEVILLE NC 28803
Alan M. Mandel	officer: Treasurer	C/O SCHRODERS, 875 THIRD AVENUE, 22ND FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022
Robert E Dean	director	5570 DTC PARKWAY, GREENWOOD VILLAGE CO 80111
Frank J. Maresca	officer: Treasurer	5 GREENVIEW CIR., HUNTINGTON NY 11743-5152
Theresa Minogue Bridge	officer: Treasurer	C/O ULTIMUS FUND SOLUTIONS, LLC, 225 PICTORIA DRIVE, SUITE 450, CINCINNATI OH 45246
William A Clark	director, officer: Vice President	C/O CORNERSTONE ADVISORS, INC., ONE WEST PARK SQUARE, SUITE 1650, ASHEVILLE NC 28801
Andrew A Strauss	director	77 CENTRAL AVE SUITE F, ASHEVILLE NC 28801