Credo Technology Group Holding (Credo Technology Group Holding) Predictability Rank

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What is Credo Technology Group Holding Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Credo Technology Group Holding Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Credo Technology Group Holding (Credo Technology Group Holding) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Technology » Hardware » Credo Technology Group Holding Ltd (NAS:CRDO) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

CRDO:Mexico

Address

Ugland House, PO Box 309, Grand Cayman, CYM, KY1-1104

Website

https://www.credosemi.com

Credo Technology Group Holding Ltd delivers high-speed solutions to break bandwidth barriers on every wired connection in the data infrastructure market. It provides innovative, secure, high-speed connectivity solutions that deliver improved power and cost efficiency as data rates and corresponding bandwidth requirements increase exponentially throughout the data infrastructure market.

Executives

William Joseph Brennan	director, officer: Pres & Chief Executive Officer	C/O CREDO TECHNOLOGY GROUP HOLDING LTD, 1600 TECHNOLOGY DRIVE, SAN JOSE CA 95110
Yat Tung Lam	director, officer: Chief Operating Officer	C/O CREDO TECHNOLOGY GROUP HOLDING LTD, 1600 TECHNOLOGY DRIVE, SAN JOSE CA 95110
Chi Fung Cheng	director, 10 percent owner, officer: Chief Technology Officer	C/O CREDO TECHNOLOGY GROUP HOLDING LTD, 1600 TECHNOLOGY DRIVE, SAN JOSE CA 95110
Daniel W. Fleming	officer: Chief Financial Officer	C/O CREDO TECHNOLOGY GROUP HOLDING LTD, 1600 TECHNOLOGY DRIVE, SAN JOSE CA 95110
Lip Bu Tan	director, 10 percent owner	ONE CALIFORNIA STREET 28TH FLOOR, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94111
Adam Thorngate-gottlund	officer: General Counsel & Secretary	C/O CREDO TECHNOLOGY GROUP HOLDING LTD, 1600 TECHNOLOGY DRIVE, SAN JOSE CA 95110
Pantas Sutardja,	director	C/O CREDO TECHNOLOGY GROUP HOLDING LTD, 1600 TECHNOLOGY DRIVE, SAN JOSE CA 95110
David Zinsner	director	1001 MURPHY RANCH ROAD, MILPITAS CA 95035
Sylvia Acevedo	director	5775 MOREHOUSE DRIVE, SAN DIEGO CA 92121
Manpreet Khaira	director	C/O CREDO TECHNOLOGY GROUP HOLDING LTD, 1600 TECHNOLOGY DRIVE, SAN JOSE CA 95110