Cheniere Energy Partners LP (Cheniere Energy Partners LP) Predictability Rank

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What is Cheniere Energy Partners LP Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Cheniere Energy Partners LP Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Cheniere Energy Partners LP (Cheniere Energy Partners LP) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Energy » Oil & Gas » Cheniere Energy Partners LP (NYSE:CQP) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

700 Milam Street, Suite 1900, Houston, TX, USA, 77002

Website

https://www.cheniere.com

Cheniere Energy Partners is the direct owner of the Sabine Pass LNG terminals as well as regasification facilities. It also owns the Creole Trail Pipeline, which connects the terminal to third-party gas suppliers. Cheniere Partners shares in the marketing fees generated by Cheniere Marketing from Sabine Pass marketed gas volumes.

Executives

Taylor Johnson	director, other: Deputy GC and Asst. Sec.	700 MILAM STREET, SUITE 1900, HOUSTON TX 77002
Grindal Corey	director, officer: EVP, Worldwide Trading	700 MILAM STREET, SUITE 1900, HOUSTON TX 77002
Brian Arthur Baker	director	700 MILAM ST., SUITE 1900, HOUSTON TX 77002
Bx Rockies Platform Co Llc	10 percent owner	C/O BLACKSTONE INC., 345 PARK AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10154
Blackstone Holdings Iii L.p.	10 percent owner	C/O BLACKSTONE INC., 345 PARK AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10154
Christopher Manuel Dellamore	director	C/O BLACKSTONE INC., 345 PARK AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10154
Tim Wyatt	director, officer: SVP, Corp. Dev. and Strategy	700 MILAM STREET, SUITE 1900, HOUSTON TX 77002
James Robert Ball	director	4 PROVIDENCE VILLAS, BRACKENBURY, LONDON X0 W6 0BA
Adam Kuhnley	director	C/O BLACKSTONE INC., 345 PARK AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10154
David L Slack	officer: VP & Chief Accounting Officer	700 MILAM STREET, SUITE 1900, HOUSTON TX 77002
Matthew Jk Runkle	director	345 PARK AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10154
Bam Partners Trust	10 percent owner	181 BAY STREET, SUITE 300, TORONTO A6 M5J 2T3
Gso Holdings I Llc	10 percent owner	C/O GSO CAPITAL PARTNERS LP, 345 PARK AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10154
Blackstone Inc.	10 percent owner	345 PARK AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10154
Blackstone Holdings Ii L.p.	10 percent owner	C/O BLACKSTONE INC., 345 PARK AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10154