What is CorePoint Lodging Predictability Rank?
Not Rated
Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
CorePoint Lodging Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
CorePoint Lodging (CorePoint Lodging) Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
125 E. John Carpenter Freeway, Suite 1650, Irving, TX, USA, 75062
CorePoint Lodging Inc is a lodging real estate investment trust strategically focused on serving the midscale and upper-midscale select-service lodging segments. The company's portfolio includes over 209 hotels with around 27,800 rooms in locations in or near employment centers, airports, and major travel thoroughfares. The company primarily derives revenues from its hotel operations.
Executives
| Jean Birch |
director |
3050 SOFT HORIZON WAY, LAS VEGAS NV 89135 |
| Alice E Gould |
director |
C/O COREPOINT LODGING INC., 909 HIDDEN RIDGE, SUITE 600, IRVING TX 75038 |
| Blackstone Holdings Ii L.p. |
10 percent owner |
C/O BLACKSTONE INC., 345 PARK AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10154 |
| Howard Steven Garfield |
officer: SVP, CAO & Treasurer |
15601 DALLAS PARKWAY, SUITE 600, ADDISON TX 75001 |
| Blackstone Real Estate Associates V L.p. |
10 percent owner |
C/O THE BLACKSTONE GROUP, 345 PARK AVE., NEW YORK NY 10154 |
| Bre/lqjv-nq L.l.c. |
10 percent owner |
C/O THE BLACKSTONE GROUP 345 PARK AVE. NEW YORK NY 10154 |
| David Loeb |
director |
C/O COREPOINT LODGING INC. 909 HIDDEN RIDGE, SUITE 600 IRVING TX 75038 |
| Yao (rob) Song |
officer: SVP & Chief Investment Officer |
125 E. JOHN CARPENTER FREEWAY SUITE 1650 IRVING TX 75062 |
| Blackstone Real Estate Partners Iv Te 2 Lp |
10 percent owner |
345 PARK AVE NEW YORK NY 10154 |
| Blackstone Inc. |
10 percent owner |
345 PARK AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10154 |
| Bre/prime Mezz 2 L.l.c. |
10 percent owner |
C/O THE BLACKSTONE GROUP 345 PARK AVE. NEW YORK NY 10154 |
| Blackstone Real Estate Partners Iv L.p. |
10 percent owner |
C/O THE BLACKSTONE GROUP 345 PARK AVE. NEW YORK NY 10154 |
| Bre/prime Mezz 3-a L.l.c. |
10 percent owner |
C/O THE BLACKSTONE GROUP 345 PARK AVE. NEW YORK NY 10154 |
| Bre/prime Holdings L.l.c. |
10 percent owner |
C/O THE BLACKSTONE GROUP 345 PARK AVE. NEW YORK NY 10154 |
| Wih Hotels L.l.c. |
10 percent owner |
C/O THE BLACKSTONE GROUP 345 PARK AVE. NEW YORK NY 10154 |
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