Traeger (Traeger) Predictability Rank

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What is Traeger Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Traeger Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Traeger (Traeger) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Cyclical » Furnishings, Fixtures & Appliances » Traeger Inc (NYSE:COOK) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

1215 E Wilmington Avenue, Suite 200, Salt Lake City, UT, USA, 84106

Website

https://www.traeger.com

Traeger Inc designs, sources, sells, and supports wood pellet fueled barbeque grills sold to retailers, distributors, and direct to consumers. It produces and sells the pellets used to fire the grills and also sells Traeger-branded rubs, spices, and sauces, as well as grill accessories including covers, barbeque tools, trays, liners, and merchandise. The company's geographical segments include North America and the Rest of the world, of which majority of revenue is from North America.

Executives

Hardy James H Jr	officer: Chief Supply Chain Officer	C/O TRAEGER, 1215 E. WILMINGTON AVENUE, SUITE 200, SALT LAKE CITY UT 84106
Dominic Blosil	officer: Chief Financial Officer	C/O TAEGER, 1215 E WILMINGTON AVENUE, SUITE 200, SALT LAKE CITY UT 84106
Jeremy Andrus	director, officer: Chief Executive Officer	C/O TRAEGER, 1215 E. WILMINGTON AVENUE, SUITE 200, SALT LAKE CITY UT 84106
Steven Philip Richman	director	C/O TRAEGER INC., 1215 E WILMINGTON AVE, SUITE 200, SALT LAKE CITY UT 84106
Ontario Teachers Pension Plan Board	10 percent owner	5650 YONGE STREET, TORONTO A6 M2M 4H5
Trilantic Capital Management L.p.	10 percent owner, other: See Remarks	399 PARK AVENUE, 39TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022
Wendy A. Beck	director	C/O NORWEGIAN CRUISE LINE HOLDINGS LTD., 7665 CORPORATE CENTER DRIVE, MIAMI FL 33126
Elizabeth Cahill Lempres	director	TWO COMMERCE SQUARE, 2001 MARKET STREET, SUITE 3600, PHILADELPHIA PA 19103
Wayne Marino	director	C/O TRAEGER, INC., 1215 E WILMINGTON AVE., SUITE 200, SALT LAKE CITY UT 84106
Aea Investors Fund Vi Lp	10 percent owner	666 FIFTH AVENUE, 36TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10103
Ralph Alvarez	director	ELI LILLY AND COMPANY, LILLY CORPORATE CENTER, INDIANAPOLIS IN 46285
Aea Investors Executive Partners Vi Llc	10 percent owner	520 MADISON AVENUE, 40TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022
Aea Investors Partners Vi Lp	10 percent owner	520 MADISON AVENUE, 40TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022
Aea Investors Executive Fund Vi Lp	10 percent owner	666 FIFTH AVENUE, 36TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10103
Aea Fund Vi Stockholder Representative Corp.	10 percent owner	520 MADISON AVENUE, 40TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022