CommScope Holding Co (CommScope Holding Co) Predictability Rank

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What is CommScope Holding Co Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

CommScope Holding Co Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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CommScope Holding Co (CommScope Holding Co) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Technology » Hardware » CommScope Holding Co Inc (NAS:COMM) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

CM9:Germany CM9:Germany

Address

1100 CommScope Place, South East, Hickory, NC, USA, 28602

Website

https://www.commscope.com

CommScope Holding Co Inc is a provider of infrastructure solutions for communication, data center and entertainment networks. The company provides solutions for wired and wireless networks to enable service providers, including cable, telephone, data center and digital broadcast satellite operators and media programmers, to deliver media, voice, Internet Protocol (IP) data services and Wi-Fi to their subscribers and allow enterprises to experience constant wireless and wired connectivity across complex and varied networking environments. The company is into digital video and IP television (IPTV) distribution systems, broadband access infrastructure platforms and equipment that delivers data and voice networks to homes.

Executives

Linde Koen Ter	officer: SVP & President, CCS	COMMSCOPE HOLDING COMPANY, INC., 3642 US 70, CLAREMONT NC 28610
Watts Claudius E. Iv	director	THE CARLYLE GROUP, 101 S. TRYON STREET, 25TH FLOOR, CHARLOTTE NC 28280
Justin C Choi	officer: SVP, Chief Legal Officer & Sec	ANIXTER INTERNATIONAL INC., 2301 PATRIOT BLVD., GLENVIEW IL 60026
Kyle David Lorentzen	officer: EVP & CFO	9968 GLASGOW COURT, DUBLIN OH 43017
Timothy T Yates	director	ONE SYMBOL PLAZA, HOLTSVILLE NY 11742
Charles L. Treadway	director, officer: President and CEO	8155 T&B BOULEVARD, MEMPHIS TN 38125
John R. Carlson	officer: SVP & Chief Commercial Officer	C/O COMMSCOPE HOLDING COMPANY, INC., 1100 COMMSCOPE PLACE, SE, HICKORY NC 28602
Bartolomeo Giordano	officer: SVP & President, NICS	1100 COMMSCOPE PL SE, C/O COMMSCOPE HOLDING COMPANY, INC., HICKORY NC 28602
Joanne M Maguire	director	6801 ROCKLEDGE DRIVE, BETHESDA MD 20817
Farid Firouzbakht	officer: SVP & President, OWN	3790 VIA DE LA VALLE, SUITE 311, DEL MAR CA 92014
Laurie S. Oracion	officer: SVP & CAO	C/O COMMSCOPE HOLDING COMPANY, INC., 1100 COMMSCOPE PLACE SE, HICKORY NC 28602
Frank M Drendel	director, officer: Chairman of Board	NEXTEL COMMUNICATIONS INC, 2001 EDMUND HALLEY DRIVE, RESTON VA 20191
Mindy Mackenzie	director	510 LAKE COOK ROAD, DEERFIELD IL 60015
Markus R. Ogurek	officer: SVP & President, NICS	C/O COMMSCOPE HOLDING COMPANY, INC., 1100 COMMSCOPE PLACE SE, HICKORY NC 28602
Guy Sucharczuk	officer: SVP & President, ANS	C/O COMMSCOPE HOLDING COMPANY, INC., 1100 COMMSCOPE PLACE SE, HICKORY NC 28602