Collegium Pharmaceutical (Collegium Pharmaceutical) Predictability Rank

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What is Collegium Pharmaceutical Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Collegium Pharmaceutical Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Collegium Pharmaceutical Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Collegium Pharmaceutical (Collegium Pharmaceutical) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Drug Manufacturers » Collegium Pharmaceutical Inc (NAS:COLL) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

354:Germany

Address

100 Technology Center Drive, Stoughton, MA, USA, 02072

Website

https://www.collegiumpharma.com

Collegium Pharmaceutical Inc is a specialty pharmaceutical company. The company is engaged in developing and planning to commercialize abuse-deterrent products that incorporate its patented DETERx platform technology for the treatment of chronic pain and other diseases. The DETERx platform technology is designed to maintain the extended-release and safety profiles of highly abused drugs in the face of various methods including chewing, crushing, and dissolving. Its product portfolio includes Xtampza ER, which is an abuse-deterrent, extended-release, oral formulation of oxycodone; and Nucynta Products, which are extended-release & immediate-release formulations of tapentadol.

Executives

Scott Dreyer	officer: EVP & Chief Commercial Officer	780 DEDHAM STREET, SUITE 800, CANTON MA 02021
Joseph Ciaffoni	director, officer: President and CEO	100 TECHNOLOGY CENTER DRIVE, STOUGHTON MA 02072
Shirley R. Kuhlmann	officer: EVP and General Counsel	780 DEDHAM STREET, SUITE 800, CANTON MA 02021
Michael Thomas Heffernan	director	C/O CORNERSTONE THERAPEUTICS INC., 1255 CRESCENT GREEN DRIVE, SUITE 250, CARY NC 27518
Tupper Colleen	officer: EVP & Chief Financial Officer	C/O COLLEGIUM PHARMACEUTICAL, INC., 100 TECHNOLOGY CENTER DRIVE, STOUGHTON MA 02072
Garen G Bohlin	director	C/O PRAECIS PHARMACEUTICALS INC, 830 WINTER STREET, WALTHAM MA 02451
Rita J. Balice-gordon	director	C/O COLLEGIUM PHARMACEUTICAL, INC., 100 TECHNOLOGY CENTER DRIVE, STOUGHTON MA 02072
John A. Fallon	director	C/O INSULET CORPORATION, 9 OAK PARK DRIVE, BEDFORD MA 01730
John Gordon Freund	director	125 UNIVERSITY AVE., C/O SKYLINE VENTURES, PALO ALTO CA 94301
Gwen A Melincoff	director	C/O TOBIRA THERAPEUTICS, INC., 701 GATEWAY BOULEVARD, SOUTH SAN FRANCISCO CA 94080
Gino Santini	director	C/O AMAG PHARMACEUTICALS, INC., 1100 WINTER STREET, WALTHAM MA 02451
Neil F. Mcfarlane	director	C/O RETROPHIN, INC., 12255 EL CAMINO REAL, SUITE 250, SAN DIEGO CA 92130
Thomas B Smith	officer: EVP and Chief Medical Officer	BIODELIVERY SCIENCES INTERNATIONAL, INC., 4131 PARKLAKE AVE SUITE 225, RALEIGH NC 27612
Richard Malamut	officer: EVP and Chief Medical Officer	100 TECHNOLOGY CENTER DRIVE, STOUGHTON MA 02072
Alison B Fleming	officer: Vice President, Product Devlp	780 DEDHAM STREET, SUITE 800, CANTON MA 02021