Cohu (COHU) Predictability Rank

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What is Cohu Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Cohu Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Cohu Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Cohu (COHU) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Technology » Semiconductors » Cohu Inc (NAS:COHU) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

CU3:Germany CU3:Germany

Address

12367 Crothwaite Circle, Poway, CA, USA, 92064-6817

Website

https://www.cohu.com

Cohu Inc is a supplier of semiconductor test and inspection handlers, micro-electro-mechanical system (MEMS) test modules, test contactors and thermal sub-systems used by semiconductor manufacturers and test subcontractors. The company's products include Semiconductor ATE (Automated Test Equipment), Semiconductor Handlers, Interface Products such as test contactors, probe heads and probe pins, Spares and Kits, Bare Board PCB Test Systems, and services. It has two reportable segments, Semiconductor Test and Inspection Equipment (Semiconductor Test & Inspection) and PCB Test Equipment (PCB Test). The majority of the firm's revenue is derived from the Semiconductor Test and Inspection Equipment segment.

Executives

Thomas D Kampfer	officer: VP Corp Dev, GC & Sec	C/O COHU, INC., 12367 CROSTHWAITE CIRCLE, POWAY CA 92128
Ian P Lawee	officer: VP & GM Semiconductor Test Grp	12367 CROSTHWAITE CIRCLE, POWAY CA 92064
Jeffrey D Jones	officer: VP Finance & CFO	12367 CROSTHWAITE CIRCLE, POWAY CA 92064
Nina Richardson	director	C/O SILICON LABORATORIES, 400 W CESAR CHAVEZ, AUSTIN TX 78701
William Bendush	director	MICROSEMI CORPORATION, ONE ENTERPRISE, ALISO VIEJO CA 92656
Steven J Bilodeau	director	C/O COHU, INC., 12367 CROSTHWAITE CIRCLE, POWAY CA 92064
Andreas W Mattes	director	C/O DIEBOLD, INCORPORATED, 5995 MAYFAIR RD, NORTH CANTON OH 44720
Christopher Bohrson	officer: VP & General Manager, Delta	12367 CROSTHWAITE CIRCLE, POWAY CA 92064
Andrew M Caggia	director	12367 CROSTHWAITE CIRCLE, POWAY CA 92064
Luis A Muller	officer: President, Delta Design, Inc.	12367 CROSTHWAITE CIRCLE, POWAY CA 92064
Yon Jorden	director	750 WEST JOHN CARPENTER FREEWAY, SUITE 1200, IRVING TX 75039
James A Donahue	officer: President & CEO
Pascal Ronde	officer: Sr. VP, Global Customer Team	LES CONQUERANTS - BATIMENT 1, AVENUE DE L'ATLANTIQUE, LES ULIS I0 91940
Robert L Ciardella	director
Lynne J Camp	director	714 NW 914TH TERRACE, PORTLAND OR 97229