Cell Source (Cell Source) Predictability Rank

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What is Cell Source Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Cell Source Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Cell Source Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Cell Source (Cell Source) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Biotechnology » Cell Source Inc (OTCPK:CLCS) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

57 West 57th Street, Suite 400, New York, NY, USA, 10019

Website

https://www.cell-source.com

Cell Source Inc is a biotechnology company focused on developing cell therapy treatments focused on immunotherapy. The company is involved with the development of proprietary immune system management technology. The company's subsidiary commercializes a suite of inventions relating to certain cancer treatments. Its other products include Anti-rejection Veto Cell tolerance therapy for both matched and mismatched allogeneic bone marrow transplantations and Anti-rejection Veto Cell tolerance therapy for both matched and mismatched organ transplantation.

Executives

George Verstraete	director	341 LAKEWOOD DRIVE, BLOOMFIELD HILLS MI 48304
Darlene Soave	director, 10 percent owner	341 LAKEWOOD DRIVE, BLOOMFIELD HILLS MI 48304
Yair Reisner	10 percent owner
Yoram Drucker	director	31 DOV SADAN ST., JERUSALEM L3 97844
Dennis M Brown	director	100 SAN MATEO DR, MENLO PARK CA 94025
Itamar Shimrat	director, officer: CEO and CFO	C/O CELL SOURCE, INC., 65 YIGAL ALON STREET, TEL AVIV L3 67433
David Zolty	director	C/O CELL SOURCE, INC., 65 YIGAL ALON STREET, TEL AVIV L3 67433
Benzion Abraham Friedman	director, 10 percent owner	C/O CELL SOURCE INC, 65 YIGALL ALON STREET, TEL AVIV L3 67433

Cell Source (Cell Source) Headlines

From GuruFocus

Pediatric Stem Cell Transplantation Expert and Industry Leader Dr. Joseph Rosenthal Joins Cell Source's Scientific Advisory Board

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