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CirTran (CirTran) Predictability Rank


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What is CirTran Predictability Rank?

1 (5)

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

CirTran Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

CirTran Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of CirTran's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.

CirTran (CirTran) Business Description

Industry
GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Industrials » Conglomerates » CirTran Corp (OTCPK:CIRX) » Definitions » Predictability Rank
Comparable Companies
CDXQ LCCN UPIN ADX:IHC HON TSE:6501 TSE:8058 TSE:8031 TSE:8001 MMM TSE:8002 ADX:ALPHADHABI TSE:8053 HKSE:00267 TSE:4901 TSE:8015 HKSE:00001 BSP:ITSA3 IST:KCHOL GCARSOA1
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
6360 S Pecos Road, Suite 8, Las Vegas, NV, USA, 89120
Website
https://www.cirtran.com
CirTran Corp offers diversified expertise in manufacturing, marketing, distribution, and technology services in a wide variety of consumer products, including tobacco products, and medical devices. The company operates under the brand name-HUSTLER and it sells products like condoms, electronic cigarettes, electronic cigars, cigars, hookahs, hookah tobacco, energy drinks, water beverages etc.
Executives
Shaher Hawatmeh officer: Chief Operating Officer 4125 SOUTH 6000 WEST, WEST VALLEY CITY UT 84128
David Harmon officer: CHIEF FINANCIAL OFFICER 4125 SOUTH 6000 WEST, WEST VALLEY CITY UT 84128
Donald L Buehner director 4125 SOUTH 6000 WEST, WEST VALLEY CITY UT 84128
Trevor Saliba director, officer: Chief Marketing Officer 4125 SOUTH 6000 WEST, WEST VALLEY CITY UT 84128
Fadi Nora director 4125 SOUTH 6000 WEST, WEST VALLEY CITY UT 84128
Iehab J Hawatmeh director, officer: President & CEO 4125 SOUTH 6000 WEST, WEST VALLEY CITY UT 84128
Raed Hawatmeh director 4125 SOUTH 6000 WEST, WEST VALLEY CITY UT 84128
Richard T Ferrone officer: CFO 4125 SOUTH 6000 WEST, WEST VALLEY CITY UT 84128

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