What is Chord Energy Predictability Rank?
Not Rated
Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
Chord Energy Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
Chord Energy (Chord Energy) Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
Address
1001 Fannin Street, Suite 1500, Houston, TX, USA, 77002
Chord Energy Corp is an independent exploration and production company. The company acquires, exploits, develops, and explores crude oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids in the Williston Basin.
Executives
| Michael H Lou |
officer: See Remarks |
1001 FANNIN STREET, SUITE 202, HOUSTON TX 77002 |
| Paul Korus |
director |
C/O CIIRMAREX ENERGY CO, 707 17TH ST. #3300, DENVER CO 80202-3404 |
| Charles J. Rimer |
officer: See Remarks |
NOBLE ENERGY INC., 1001 NOBLE ENERGY WAY, HOUSTON TX 77070 |
| Lynn A Peterson |
director, officer: Executive Chair |
1625 BROADWAY, SUITE 250, DENVER CO 80202 |
| Shannon Browning Kinney |
officer: EVP, GC and Corp Secretary |
1001 FANNIN STREET, SUITE 1500, HOUSTON TX 77002 |
| Samantha Holroyd |
director |
1711 MARAVILLA DR., HOUSTON TX 77055 |
| John David Jacobi |
director |
5300 TOWN AND COUNTRY BLVD, SUITE 500, FRISCO TX 75034 |
| Robert Joseph Mcnally |
director |
625 LIBERTY AVENUE, SUITE 1700, C/O EQT CORPORATION, PITTSBURGH PA 15222 |
| Anne Taylor |
director |
800 GESSNER, SUITE 500, HOUSTON TX 77024 |
| Lancaster N John Jr |
director |
712 FIFTH AVENUE, 19TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10019 |
| Kevin S Mccarthy |
director |
C/O KAYNE ANDERSON CAPITAL ADVISORS, LP, 1800 AVENUE OF THE STARS, SECOND FLOOR, LOS ANGELES CA 90067 |
| Susan M Cunningham |
director |
NOBLE ENERGY, INC., 1001 NOBLE ENERGY WAY, HOUSTON TX 77070 |
| Taylor L Reid |
officer: President and COO |
1001 FANNIN STREET, SUITE 202, HOUSTON TX 77002 |
| Daniel E Brown |
director, officer: See Remarks |
1201 LAKE ROBBINS DRIVE, THE WOODLANDS TX 77380 |
| Nickolas J Lorentzatos |
officer: Executive VP, GC & Corp. Sec. |
1001 FANNIN STREET, SUITE 1500, HOUSTON TX 77002 |
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