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China Health Industries Holdings (China Health Industries Holdings) Predictability Rank


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What is China Health Industries Holdings Predictability Rank?

1 (5)

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

China Health Industries Holdings Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

China Health Industries Holdings Predictability Rank Related Terms

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China Health Industries Holdings (China Health Industries Holdings) Business Description

Industry
GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Drug Manufacturers » China Health Industries Holdings Inc (OTCPK:CHHE) » Definitions » Predictability Rank
Comparable Companies
LIFD BKUH QLI SCTL CPIX TXMD PNXP HSTI ETST HYEXD ZTS XTER:MRK TSE:4502 LSE:HLN NSE:SUNPHARMA TSE:4523 TSE:4507 XSWX:SDZ VTRS NBIX
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
3199-1 Longxiang Road, Songbei District, Heilongjiang Province, Harbin, CHN, 150028
Website
http://www.chinahealthindustries.com
China Health Industries Holdings Inc operates in the health product industry and produces, markets and distributes medicines, health products, health devices and cosmetics. Its products series cover hemp-based food, hemp-based medicines, external used medicines and health food. The company has segmented its operating activities into three reportable segments, Humankind, HLJ Huimeijia, and Others. It generates maximum revenue from the Humankind segment.
Executives
Sun Xin director, 10 percent owner, officer: CEO, CFO and Treasurer NO 168 BINBEI STREET, SONBEI DISTRICT, HARBIN, HEI LONG JIANG F4 150000
Hall E Ewing director, officer: Secretary 2737 W BASELINE RD 22, TEMPE AZ 85283
Jack C Robinson director 16304 E COUNTRY SHADOW CT, LILBEAT AZ 85297
Teri S Foster director 402 CANDOVER COURT, KATY TX 77450
Brian Lee Hahn director, officer: COO 422 LAMONT TERRACE, BUFFALO GROVE IL 60089
Dennis Mckee 10 percent owner 3522 DOHERTY PLACE, KATY TX 77449
Thomas Allen Bontems 10 percent owner, officer: President, CEO, CFO and, other: Secretary 1808 S. 1ST AVENUE, PHONEIX AZ 85003

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