What is Capstone Green Energy Predictability Rank?
Not Rated
Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:
1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.
It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.
GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.
Capstone Green Energy Predictability Rank Calculation
In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.
Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:
Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.
The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.
Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns
| Predictables | Non-Predictable | All stocks |
|---|
| Total Number of stocks | 570 | 1833 | 2403 |
| Total Lost Money | 61 | 830 | 891 |
| Total Lost More Than 50% | 18 | 412 | 430 |
| Total Lost More Than 90% | 4 | 86 | 90 |
| Average Gain | 260.6% | 100.0% | 138.1% |
| Median Gain | 150.0% | 13.0% | 39.0% |
| Maximum Gain | 2852.0% | 11483.0% | 11483.0% |
| Maximum Loss | -100.0% | -100.0% | -100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain | 12.7% | 6.7% | 8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain | 8.9% | 1.1% | 3.1% |
For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.
| Predictability Rank | 5-Star | 4.5-Star | 4-Star | 3.5-Star | 3-Star | 2.5-Star | 2-Star | 1-Star (non-predictable) | Average among all |
|---|
| % Out of All 2403 Stocks |
3.3% |
2.9% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
3.3% |
3.7% |
3.3% |
76.3% |
100% |
| % that are in Loss (10y) |
3% |
10% |
8% |
9% |
11% |
18% |
16% |
45% |
37% |
| Average Gain (10y) |
364.6% |
330.9% |
278.0% |
235.1% |
243.5% |
227.8% |
154.8% |
100.0% |
138.1% |
| Median Gain (10y) |
238.5% |
193.5% |
171.0% |
159.0% |
132.5% |
113.5% |
87.0% |
13.0% |
39.0% |
| Maximum Gainer |
2228.0% |
2547.0% |
2452.0% |
2852.0% |
2432.0% |
1892.0% |
1807.0% |
11483.0% |
11483.0% |
| Maximum Loser |
-82.0% |
-53.0% |
-67.0% |
-100.0% |
-83.0% |
-100.0% |
-78.0% |
-100.0% |
-100.0% |
| Annualized Average Gain |
15.4% |
14.6% |
13.2% |
12.0% |
12.2% |
11.7% |
9.1% |
6.7% |
8.4% |
| Annualized Median Gain |
12.1% |
10.6% |
9.8% |
9.3% |
8.2% |
7.3% |
6.0% |
1.1% |
3.1% |
For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank
Also read:
Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety
Capstone Green Energy (Capstone Green Energy) Business Description
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
16640 Stagg Street, Van Nuys, Los Angles, CA, USA, 91406
Capstone Green Energy Corp is the producer of low-emission microturbine systems. The company develops, manufactures, markets and services microturbine technology solutions for use in stationary distributed power generation applications. Capstone Turbine's products include onboard generation for hybrid electric vehicles; conversion of oil field and biomass waste gases into electricity; combined heat, power, and chilling solutions; capacity addition; and standby power.
Executives
| John J Juric |
officer: Chief Financial Officer |
16640 STAGG STREET, VAN NUYS CA 91406 |
| Scott W. Robinson |
officer: InterimChief Financial Officer |
16640 STAGG STREET, C/O CAPSTONE GREEN ENERGY, VAN NUYS CA 91406 |
| Darren Jamison |
officer: President and Cheif Executive |
182 MAD RIVER PARK, WAITSFIELD VT 05673 |
| Celia Fanning |
officer: Chief Accounting Officer |
16640 STAGG STREET, VAN NUYS CA 91406 |
| Ping Fu |
director |
C/O LIVE NATION ENTERTAINMENT, INC., 9348 CIVIC CENTER DRIVE, BEVERLY HILLS CA 90210 |
| Robert F Powelson |
director |
C/O CAPSTONE TURBINE CORPORATION, 16640 STAGG STREET, VAN NUYS CA 91406 |
| Robert C Flexon |
director |
1313 N MARKET ST, WILMINGTON DE 19894 |
| Hencken Frederick S. Iii |
officer: Chief Accounting Officer |
C/O CAPSTONE TURBINE CORP., 16640 STAGG ST., VAN NUYS CA 91406 |
| Neshan Nino Tavitian |
officer: Chief Accounting Officer |
19034 SCHOENBORN STREET, NORTHRIDGE CA 91324 |
| Denise Wilson |
director |
211 CARNEGIE CENTER, PRINCETON NJ 08540 |
| Deursen Holly Van |
director |
21211 NORDHOFF STREET, CHATSWORTH CA 91311 |
| Yon Jorden |
director |
750 WEST JOHN CARPENTER FREEWAY, SUITE 1200, IRVING TX 75039 |
| Paul Deweese |
director |
21211 NORDHOFF STREET, CHATSWORTH CA 91311 |
| Jayme L. Brooks |
officer: Interim CAO |
21211 NORDHOFF STREET, CHATSWORTH CA 91311 |
| Noam Lotan |
director |
C/O MRV COMMUNICATIONS INC, 8917 FULLBRIGHT AVE, CHATSWORTH CA 91311 |
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