ContraFect (ContraFect) Predictability Rank

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What is ContraFect Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

ContraFect Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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ContraFect (ContraFect) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Biotechnology » ContraFect Corp (OTCPK:CFRXQ) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

28 Wells Avenue, 3rd Floor, Yonkers, NY, USA, 10701

Website

https://www.contrafect.com

ContraFect Corp is a late clinical-stage biotechnology company focused on the discovery and development of direct lytic agents (DLAs), including lysins and amurin peptides, as new medical modalities for the treatment of life-threatening, antibiotic-resistant infections. Its DLA product candidate, exebacase, is currently being studied in patients with chronic prosthetic joint infections (PJIs) of the knee due to S. aureus or coagulase-negative Staphylococci, and the next product candidate, CF-370, is designed to target a range of gram-negative bacteria, including P. aeruginosa, K. pneumoniae, and A. baumannii, and has demonstrated potent in vivo activity against these pathogens, even against multidrug-resistant (MDR) and extensively drug-resistant (XDR) strains.

Executives

Jane F Barlow	director	6800 BROKEN SOUND PARKWAY NW, 3RD FLOOR, BOCA RATON FL 33487
Lishan Aklog	director	420 LEXINGTON AVENUE, SUITE 300, NEW YORK NY 10171
Michael Messinger	officer: VP Finance	238 PENNINGTON HARBURTON ROAD, PENNINGTON NJ 08534
Cary Sucoff	director	1612 EAST CAPE CORAL PKWY, C/O LEGACY EDUCATION ALLIANCE, INC., CAPE CORAL FL 33904
David N. Low	director	EMBARCADERO FOUR, SUITE 650, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94111
Sol J Barer	director	C/O INSPIREMD, INC., 321 COLUMBUS AVENUE, BOSTON MA 02116
Lisa Ricciardi	director	C/O COGNITION THERAPEUTICS, INC, 2500 WESTCHESTER AVENUE, PURCHASE NY 10577
Joshua B Muntner	officer: SVP Business Development	30 FIFTH AVENUE, 12F, NEW YORK NY 10011
Shanghai Fosun Pharmaceutical (group) Co., Ltd.	10 percent owner	BUILDING A, NO. 1289 YISHAN ROAD, SHANGHAI F4 200233
Fosun Industrial Co., Ltd	10 percent owner	FLAT/ROOM 808, ICBC TOWER, 3 GARDEN ROAD, HONG KONG F4 00000
Cara M Cassino	officer: Chief Medical Officer	757 STONY POINT ROAD, BENSON VT 05743
Natalie Bogdanos	officer: General Counsel	207-23 DARREN DRIVE, BAYSIDE NY 11360
Roger Pomerantz	director	711 HARVEST HILL ROAD, CHALFONT PA 18914
Michael J. Otto	director	303A COLLEGE ROAD EAST, PRINCETON NJ 08540
Steven C Gilman	director	110 HARTWELL AVENUE, LEXINGTON MA 02421