Century Communities (Century Communities) Predictability Rank

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What is Century Communities Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Century Communities Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Century Communities (Century Communities) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Cyclical » Homebuilding & Construction » Century Communities Inc (NYSE:CCS) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

CCT:Germany

Address

8390 East Crescent Parkway, Suite 650, Greenwood Village, CO, USA, 80111

Website

https://www.centurycommunities.com

Century Communities Inc is a construction company that focuses on the residential market. It has five homebuilding segments: West, Mountain, Texas, Southeast, and Century Complete. Its sixth reportable segment is financial services operations, which provides mortgage, title, and insurance services to homebuyers. It has acquired land for homebuilding operations with the primary intent to develop and construct single-family detached or attached homes for sale on the acquired land. The company sells homes through its own sales representatives and independent real estate brokers. It also advertises directly to potential homebuyers through the Internet, newspapers, and trade publications. The company generates the most revenue from the Mountain segment.

Executives

Elisa Z Ramirez	director	1225 17TH STREET, SUITE 2600, DENVER CO 80202
David L Messenger	officer: Chief Financial Officer
John Scott Dixon	officer: Chief Accounting Officer	CENTURY COMMUNITIES, INC., 8390 E. CRESCENT PARKWAY, STE. 650, GREENWOOD VILLAGE CO 80111
Dale Francescon	director, 10 percent owner, officer: See Remarks	8390 EAST CRESCENT PARKWAY, SUITE 650, GREENWOOD VILLAGE CO 80111
Robert J Francescon	director, 10 percent owner, officer: See Remarks	8390 EAST CRESCENT PARKWAY, SUITE 650, GREENWOOD VILLAGE CO 80111
Patricia L. Arvielo	director	8390 EAST CRESCENT PARKWAY, SUITE 650, GREENWOOD VILLAGE CO 80111
Bennett Wesley Allen Arthur	other: General Counsel	C/O CENTURY COMMUNITIES, INC., 8390 EAST CRESCENT PARKWAY, SUITE 650, GREENWOOD VILLAGE CO 80111
Dustin L. Bogue	other: Regional President - West	UCP, INC., 99 ALMADEN BOULEVARD, SUITE 400, SAN JOSE CA 95113
Stewart Hugh Parker	other: Regional President	C/O CENTURY COMMUNITIES, INC., 8390 EAST CRESCENT PARKWAY, SUITE 650, GREENWOOD VILLAGE CO 80111
Richard A Carruthers	other: Regional President	C/O CENTURY COMMUNITIES, INC., 8390 EAST CRESCENT PARKWAY, SUITE 650, GREENWOOD VILLAGE CO 80111
Liesel W Cooper	other: Regional President	C/O CENTURY COMMUNITIES, INC., 8390 EAST CRESCENT PARKWAY, SUITE 650, GREENWOOD VILLAGE CO 80111
Keith R Guericke	director	C/O ESSEX PROPERTY TRUST, 1100 PARK PLACE, SUITE 200, SAN MATEO CA 94403
John P Box	director	8390 EAST CRESCENT PARKWAY, SUITE 650, GREENWOOD VILLAGE CO 80111
James A Lippman	director	8390 EAST CRESCENT PARKWAY, SUITE 650, GREENWOOD VILLAGE CO 80111
Kenneth J Rabel	officer: Division President-Colorado	8390 EAST CRESCENT PARKWAY, SUITE 650, GREENWOOD VILLAGE CO 80111