Calithera Biosciences (Calithera Biosciences) Predictability Rank

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What is Calithera Biosciences Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Calithera Biosciences Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Calithera Biosciences (Calithera Biosciences) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Biotechnology » Calithera Biosciences Inc (OTCPK:CALA) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

343 Oyster Point Boulevard, Suite 200, South San Francisco, CA, USA, 94080

Website

https://www.calithera.com

Calithera Biosciences Inc is a clinical-stage pharmaceutical company. The business activity of the firm functions through the region of the United States. It focuses on discovering and developing small molecule drugs directed against tumor and immune cell targets that control key metabolic pathways in the tumor microenvironment. Its product candidate is CB-839, an inhibitor of glutaminase for the treatment of solid tumors. Its other product candidate, CB-1158, is being developed for hematology and oncology indications.

Executives

Deepika Pakianathan	director, 10 percent owner	160 BOVET ROAD, SUITE 408, C/O DELPHI VENTURES, SAN MATEO CA 94402
Takeda Ventures, Inc.	10 percent owner	9625 TOWNE CENTRE DRIVE, SAN DIEGO CA 92121
Keith Orford	officer: SR. VP, CLINICAL DEVELOPMENT	CALITHERA BIOSCIENCES, 343 OYSTER POINT BLVD, SUITE 200, SOUTH SAN FRANCISCO CA 94080
Jonathan G Drachman	director	21823 30TH DRIVE SE, BOTHELL WA 98021
Susan Molineaux	director, officer: PRESIDENT AND CEO	C/O CALITHERA BIOSCIENCES, INC., 343 OYSTER POINT BLVD., SUITE 200, SOUTH SAN FRANCISCO CA 94080
Christopher Molineaux	officer: SR. VP, DEVELOPMENT	CALITHERA BIOSCIENCES, 343 OYSTER POINT, SUITE 200, SOUTH SAN FRANCISCO CA 94080
Emil Kuriakose	officer: CHIEF MEDICAL OFFICER	343 OYSTER POINT BLVD, SUITE 200, SOUTH SAN FRANCISCO CA 94080
Millennium Pharmaceuticals Inc	10 percent owner	40 LANDSDOWNE STREET, CAMBRIDGE MA 02139
Takeda Pharmaceutical Co Ltd	10 percent owner	1-1, NIHONBASHI-HONCHO 2-CHOME, CHUO-KU, TOKYO M0 103-8668
J. Scott Garland	director	210 EAST GRAND AVE., SOUTH SAN FRANCISCO CA 94080
Biotechnology Value Fund L P	other: See Explanation of Responses	44 MONTGOMERY STREET, 40TH FL, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94104
Stephanie Wong	officer: VP, FINANCE	343 OYSTER POINT BLVD #200, SOUTH SAN FRANCISCO CA 94080
Bvf Inc/il	10 percent owner	44 MONTGOMERY STREET, 40TH FL, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94104
Biotechnology Value Fund Ii Lp	other: See Explanation of Responses	44 MONTGOMERY STREET, 40TH FL, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94104
Mark N Lampert	10 percent owner	1 SANSOME ST, 30TH FL, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94104