GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Real Estate » REITs » Blackstone Mortgage Trust Inc (NYSE:BXMT) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Blackstone Mortgage Trust (Blackstone Mortgage Trust) Predictability Rank


View and export this data going back to 1980. Start your Free Trial

What is Blackstone Mortgage Trust Predictability Rank?

1 (5)

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Blackstone Mortgage Trust Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Blackstone Mortgage Trust Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Blackstone Mortgage Trust's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.

Blackstone Mortgage Trust (Blackstone Mortgage Trust) Business Description

Industry
GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Real Estate » REITs » Blackstone Mortgage Trust Inc (NYSE:BXMT) » Definitions » Predictability Rank
Comparable Companies
ABR ARI RC LADR TWO PMT CMTG MFA FBRT CIM NLY AGNC STWD RITM EFC ARR BRSP DX RWT KREF
Traded in Other Exchanges
BXMT:Mexico 079A:Germany 079A:Germany
Address
345 Park Avenue, 24th Floor, New York, NY, USA, 10154
Website
https://www.blackstonemortgagetrust.com
Blackstone Mortgage Trust Inc is a real estate finance company primarily involved in the origination and purchase of senior loans collateralized by commercial properties in North America, Europe, and Australia. The vast majority of the company's asset portfolio is comprised of floating rate loans secured by priority mortgages. These mortgages are mainly derived from office, hotel, and manufactured housing properties. A significant percentage of the collateralized real estate properties are located in New York, California, and the United Kingdom. Blackstone Mortgage Trust is managed by a subsidiary of The Blackstone Group and benefits from the market data provided by its parent company. Nearly all of Blackstone Mortgage Trust's revenue is generated in the form of interest income.
Executives
Marone Anthony F. Jr officer: Chief Financial Officer C/O BLACKSTONE MORTGAGE TRUST, 345 PARK AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10154
Katharine A Keenan director, officer: CEO & President C/O BLACKSTONE MORTGAGE TRUST, 345 PARK AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10154
Nnenna Lynch director 4040 WILSON BOULEVARD, SUITE1000, ARLINGTON VA 22203
Lynne B Sagalyn director
Leonard W Cotton director 625 MADISON AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10022
Henry N Nassau director 435 DEVON PARK DR, BLDG 600, WAYNE PA 19087
Thomas E Dobrowski director MANUFACTURED HOME COMMUNTIES INC, 2 N RIVERSIDE PLZ #8, CHICAGO IL 60606
Timothy Steven Johnson director C/O BLACKSTONE INC., 345 PARK AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10154
Michael B. Nash director C/O THE BLACKSTONE GROUP, 345 PARK AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10154
Gilda Perez-alvarado director C/O SONDER HOLDINGS, INC., 101 15TH ST., SAN FRANCISCO CA 94103
Jonathan Lee Pollack director C/O BLACKSTONE MORTGAGE TRUST, INC., 345 PARK AVE., 42ND FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10154
Douglas N. Armer officer: Principal and Treasurer C/O BLACKSTONE MORTGAGE TRUST, 345 PARK AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10154
Stephen D Plavin director, officer: CEO OMEGA HEALTHCARE INVESTORS INC, 900 VICTORS WAY SUITE 350, ANN ARBOR MI 48108
Thomas C Ruffing officer: CCO, Head of Asset Management C/O CAPITAL TRUST, INC. 410 PARK AVENUE, 14TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022
Paul D Quinlan officer: Chief Financial Officer C/O BLACKSTONE MORTGAGE TRUST, 345 PARK AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10154