BrightView Holdings (BrightView Holdings) Predictability Rank

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What is BrightView Holdings Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

BrightView Holdings Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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BrightView Holdings (BrightView Holdings) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Industrials » Business Services » BrightView Holdings Inc (NYSE:BV) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

7BV:Germany

Address

980 Jolly Road, Blue Bell, PA, USA, 19422

Website

https://www.brightview.com

BrightView Holdings Inc is a provider of commercial landscaping services in the United States. The company provides commercial landscaping services, landscape maintenance, and enhancements to tree care and landscape development. It operates through two segments namely Maintenance Services, and Development Services. The Maintenance Services are self-performed through a national branch network and are route-based in nature, and the Development Services are comprised of sophisticated design, coordination, and installation of landscapes at recognizable corporate, athletic, and university complexes. The company generates a majority of its revenue from Maintenance Services.

Executives

Thomas C Donnelly	officer: See Remarks	C/O BRIGHTVIEW HOLDINGS, INC., 401 PLYMOUTH ROAD, SUITE 500, PLYMOUTH MEETING PA 19462-1646
William L Cornog	director	C/O KOHLBERG KRAVIS ROBERTS & CO. L.P., 9 WEST 57TH STREET, SUITE 4200, NEW YORK NY 10019
Jonathan Mark Gottsegen	officer: See Remarks	C/O UNITED RENTALS, INC., 100 FIRST STAMFORD PL, STAMFORD CT 06902
Dale A Asplund	officer: President and CEO	C/O BRIGHTVIEW HOLDINGS, INC., 980 JOLLY ROAD, SUITE 300, BLUE BELL PA 19422
Birch-or Equity Holdings, Llc	director, 10 percent owner	C/O ONE ROCK CAPITAL PARTNERS, LLC, 30 ROCKEFELLER PLAZA, 54TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10112
One Rock Capital Partners Iii Gp, Lp	director, 10 percent owner	C/O ONE ROCK CAPITAL PARTNERS, LLC, 30 ROCKEFELLER PLAZA, 54TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10112
Tony W Lee	director, 10 percent owner	C/O ONE ROCK CAPITAL PARTNERS, LLC, 45 ROCKEFELLER PLAZA, 39TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10111
Birch Equity Holdings Gp, Llc	director, 10 percent owner	C/O ONE ROCK CAPITAL PARTNERS, LLC, 45 ROCKEFELLER PLAZA, 39TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10111
Orcp Gp Professionals, Llc	director, 10 percent owner	C/O ONE ROCK CAPITAL PARTNERS, LLC, 45 ROCKEFELLER PLAZA, 39TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10111
Birch Equity Holdings, Lp	director, 10 percent owner	C/O ONE ROCK CAPITAL PARTNERS, LLC, 45 ROCKEFELLER PLAZA, 39TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10111
Joshua D Goldman	director	C/O ONE ROCK CAPITAL PARTNERS, LLC, 45 ROCKEFELLER PLAZA, 39TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10111
One Rock Capital Partners Iii, Lp	director, 10 percent owner	ONE ROCK CAPITAL PARTNERS, LLC, 45 ROCKEFELLER PLAZA, 39TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10111
Scott Spielvogel	director, 10 percent owner	C/O ONE ROCK CAPITAL PARTNERS, LLC, 45 ROCKEFELLER PLAZA, 39TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10111
Kurtis T Barker	director	C/O ONE ROCK CAPITAL PARTNERS, LLC, 45 ROCKEFELLER PLAZA, 39TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10111
Brian Edward Jackson	officer: Chief Accounting Officer	C/O BRIGHTVIEW HOLDINGS, INC., 980 JOLLY ROAD, SUITE 300, BLUE BELL PA 19422