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CalEthos (CalEthos) Predictability Rank


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What is CalEthos Predictability Rank?

1 (5)

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

CalEthos Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

CalEthos Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of CalEthos's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.

CalEthos (CalEthos) Business Description

Industry
GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Technology » Software » CalEthos Inc (OTCPK:BUUZ) » Definitions » Predictability Rank
Comparable Companies
FORW NFTN ADMG HNRA STLY BLYQ TCRI BRLI DHCC IHAI PBAJ BOM:543385 SCRM CVII SVMB GHIX AACT DWAC SAGA LSE:ADMR
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
11753 Willard Avenue, Tustin, CA, USA, 92782
Website
https://www.calethos.com
CalEthos Inc is a shell company.
Executives
Sean Paul Fontenot 10 percent owner 1202 WALNUT AVENUE, LONG BEACH CA 90813
Hyuncheol Peter Kim officer: Chief Technology Officer 132 DOLCI, IRVINE CA 92602
Steve Shum director 9025 SW HILLMAN COURT, SUITE 3126, WILSONVILLE OR 97070
Michael Campbell director, 10 percent owner, officer: Chief Executive Officer 11753 WILLARD AVENUE, TUSTIN CA 92782
Piers Cooper director, 10 percent owner, officer: President 452 LAKEVIEW WAY, EMERALD HILLS CA 94062
M1 Advisors Llc 10 percent owner 11753 WILLARD AVENUE, TUSTIN CA 92782
Lawrence J. Selevan 10 percent owner C/O CHESTERFIELD FARING LTD., 415 MADISON AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10017
Chesterfield Faring, Ltd. 10 percent owner 415 MADISON AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10017
Nathan Hanks director, 10 percent owner, officer: President and CEO C/O REAL SOURCE, 2089 FORT UNION BLVD., SALT LAKE CITY UT 84121
Real Source Acquisitions Group, Llc 10 percent owner 2089 EAST FORT UNION BLVD, SALT LAKE CITY UT 84121
Michael Anderson director, 10 percent owner, other: (Chairman of the Board) C/O REAL SOURCE, 2089 EAST FORT UNION BLVD., SALT LAKE CITY UT 84121
Kelly Randall director, officer: COO and CFO C/O REAL SOURCE, 2089 EAST FORT UNION BLVD., SALT LAKE CITY UT 84121
Six Capital Ltd 10 percent owner MONT FLEURI, MAHE T2 0000
Charles El-moussa director, 10 percent owner, officer: President Secretary Treasurer 5100 WESTHEIMER, SUITE 200, HOUSTON TX 77056
Mike Mcfarland director, 10 percent owner, officer: Pres/Sec/Treas/CEO/CFO 71130, 198-8060 SILVER SPRING ROAD, CALGARY A0 T3B 5K2

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