Bentley Systems (Bentley Systems) Predictability Rank

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What is Bentley Systems Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Bentley Systems Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Bentley Systems (Bentley Systems) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Technology » Software » Bentley Systems Inc (NAS:BSY) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

BS81:Germany

Address

685 Stockton Drive, Exton, PA, USA, 19341

Website

https://www.bentley.com

Bentley Systems is a software vendor that caters to engineers, architects, constructors, and geospatial professionals by enabling design, modeling, simulation and project, and data management of infrastructure assets. The firm delivers solutions via the cloud, desktop, and hybrid environments. While Bentley is relatively small in comparison with peers like Autodesk, it shines in core specialty areas, like bridge or rail design, as opposed to being more broad-based in its applications. As of fiscal 2022, approximately 58% of revenue is derived from outside the U.S. (with 28% of revenue coming from EMEA and 18% coming from APAC as of fiscal 2022). Bentley's largest end market is the public works and utilities sector, which represents approximately two thirds of revenue.

Executives

Gregory S Bentley	director, 10 percent owner, officer: Chairman, CEO & President	C/O BENTLEY SYSTEMS INC, 685 STOCKTON RD, EXTON PA 19341
Michael M Campbell	officer: Chief Product Officer	C/O BENTLEY SYSTEMS, INCORPORATED, 685 STOCKTON DRIVE, EXTON PA 19341
Kirk B. Griswold	director	11 TROTTER WAY, COLLEGEVILLE PA 19426
Nicholas Cumins	officer: Chief Product Officer	C/O BENTLEY SYSTEMS, INCORPORATED, 685 STOCKTON DRIVE, EXTON PA 19341
David R. Shaman	officer: Chief Legal Officer	C/O BENTLEY SYSTEMS, INCORPORATED, 685 STOCKTON DRIVE, EXTON PA 19341
Barry J. Bentley	director, 10 percent owner	C/O BENTLEY SYSTEMS, INCORPORATED, 685 STOCKTON DRIVE, EXTON PA 19341
David J. Hollister	officer: See Remarks	C/O BENTLEY SYSTEMS, INCORPORATED, 685 STOCKTON DRIVE, EXTON PA 19341
Brock Ballard	officer: Chief Revenue Officer	C/O BENTLEY SYSTEMS, INCORPORATED, 685 STOCKTON DRIVE, EXTON PA 19341
Brian F. Hughes	director	124 COLONIAL RIDGE DRIVE, HADDONFIELD NJ 08033
Raymond B. Bentley	director, 10 percent owner, officer: Executive Vice President	C/O BENTLEY SYSTEMS, INCORPORATED, 685 STOCKTON DRIVE, EXTON PA 19341
Gus Bergsma	officer: Chief Revenue Officer	C/O BENTLEY SYSTEMS, INCORPORATED, 685 STOCKTON DRIVE, EXTON PA 19341
Keith A. Bentley	director, 10 percent owner, officer: Chief Technology Officer	C/O BENTLEY SYSTEMS, INCORPORATED, 685 STOCKTON DRIVE, EXTON PA 19341
Richard P. Bentley	10 percent owner	C/O VIDEORAY LLC, 212 EAST HIGH STREET, POTTSTOWN PA 19464
Spt Invest Management Sarl	10 percent owner	21 RUE EDMOND REUTER, CONTERN N4 5326
Andre Werner	officer: Chief Accounting Officer	C/O BENTLEY SYSTEMS, INCORPORATED, 685 STOCKTON DRIVE, EXTON PA 19341