Bionano Genomics (Bionano Genomics) Predictability Rank

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What is Bionano Genomics Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Bionano Genomics Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Bionano Genomics (Bionano Genomics) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Medical Devices & Instruments » Bionano Genomics Inc (NAS:BNGO) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

BNGO:Mexico

Address

9540 Towne Centre Drive, Suite 100, San Diego, CA, USA, 92121

Website

https://bionano.com

Bionano Genomics Inc is a life sciences instrumentation company in the genome analysis space. It is engaged in the development and marketing of the Saphyr system, a platform for ultra-sensitive and ultra-specific structural variation detection that enables researchers and clinicians to accelerate the search for new diagnostics and therapeutic targets and to streamline the study of changes in chromosomes. Geographically, it operates in Americas, EMEA and Asia Pacific; majority revenue being generated from Americas.

Executives

Gulsen Kama	officer: Chief Financial Officer	C/O BIONANO GENOMICS, INC., 9540 TOWNE CENTRE DRIVE, SUITE 100, SAN DIEGO CA 92121
Hannah Mamuszka	director	C/O BIONANO GENOMICS, INC., 9540 TOWNE CENTRE DRIVE, SUITE 100, SAN DIEGO CA 92121
R. Erik Holmlin	director, officer: President and CEO	4088 COMMERCIAL AVE., NORTHBROOK IL 60062
Christopher P. Stewart	officer: Chief Financial Officer	C/O BIONANO GENOMICS, INC., 9540 TOWNE CENTRE DRIVE, SUITE 100, SAN DIEGO CA 92121
Jonathan V. Dixon	officer: General Counsel	C/O BIONANO GENOMICS, INC., 9540 TOWNE CENTRE DRIVE, SUITE 100, SAN DIEGO CA 92121
Yvonne Linney	director	C/O BIONANO GENOMICS, INC., 9540 TOWNE CENTRE DRIVE, SUITE 100, SAN DIEGO CA 92121
David L Barker	director	9885 TOWNE CENTRE DR, SAN DIEGO CA 92121
Aleksandar Rajkovic	director	9540 TOWNE CENTRE DRIVE, SUITE 100, SAN DIEGO CA 92121
Vincent Jung-fai Wong	director	C/O BIONANO GENOMICS, INC., 9540 TOWNE CENTRE DRIVE, SUITE 100, SAN DIEGO CA 92121
Soheil Shams	officer: Chief Informatics Officer	C/O BIONANO GENOMICS, INC., 9540 TOWNE CENTRE DRIVE, SUITE 100, SAN DIEGO CA 92121
Richard Shippy	officer: Chief Business Officer	C/O BIONANO GENOMICS, INC., 9540 TOWNE CENTRE DRIVE, SUITE 100, SAN DIEGO CA 92121
Robert J Priar	officer: Chief Commercial Officer	C/O BIONANO GENOMICS, INC., 9540 TOWNE CENTRE DRIVE, SUITE 100, SAN DIEGO CA 92121
Alka Chaubey	officer: Chief Medical Officer	C/O BIONANO GENOMICS, INC., 9540 TOWNE CENTRE DRIVE, SUITE 100, SAN DIEGO CA 92121
Heather Adams	officer: Chief Administrative Officer	C/O BIONANO GENOMICS, INC., 9540 TOWNE CENTRE DRIVE, SUITE 100, SAN DIEGO CA 92121
Kristiina Md Vuori	director	C/O WEBMD HEALTH CORP., 111 EIGHTH AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10011