Blum Holdings (Blum Holdings) Predictability Rank

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What is Blum Holdings Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Blum Holdings Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Blum Holdings (Blum Holdings) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Healthcare » Drug Manufacturers » Blum Holdings Inc (OTCPK:BLMH) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

3242 South Halladay Street, Suite 202, Santa Ana, CA, USA, 92705

Website

https://www.unrivaledbrands.com

Blum Holdings Inc formerly Unrivaled Brands Inc is a vertically integrated cannabis multi-state operator having a cannabis brand spanning consumer products, cultivation, distribution, and retail. Its brands include Korova, Sticks, and Cabana, among others. It operates leading dispensaries throughout the state as well as several leading company-owned brands including Korova, known for its high potency products across multiple product categories.

Executives

Patty Chan	officer: CHIEF FINANCIAL OFFICER	11516 DOWNEY AVE, DOWNEY CA 90241
Oren Schauble	officer: President	3242 S HALLADAY ST., SUITE 202, SANTA ANA CA 92705
Dallas Imbimbo	director	1800 NEWPORT CIRCLE, SANTA ANA CA 92705
Eric Baum	director	866 BERKSHIRE DRIVE, WESTBURY NY 11590
Tiffany N. Davis	director	11852 MANHATTAN CT., RANCHO CUCAMONGA CA 91730
Michael Nahass	director	2040 MAIN STREET, SUITE 225, IRVINE CA 92614
Derek Peterson	director, officer: President and CEO	2040 MAIN STREET, SUITE 225, IRVINE CA 92614
Alan David Gladstone	other: Former Director of Issuer	P.O BOX 9699, NEWPORT BEACH CA 92658
Uri Kenig	officer: Chief Operating Officer	2040 MAIN ST., SUITE 225, IRVINE CA 92614
Ira E. Ritter	director	C/O RITTER PHARMACEUTICALS INC., 1801 CENTURY PARK EAST, SUITE 1820, LOS ANGELES CA 90096
Nicholas Kovacevich	director	2618 SAN MIGUEL DRIVE, #480, NEWPORT BEACH CA 92660
Knuettel Ii Francis	director	205 NEWBURY ST, SUITE 204, FRAMINGHAM MA 01701
Jeffrey Robert Batliner	officer: Chief Financial Officer	2040 MAIN STREET, SUITE 225, IRVINE CA 92614
Megan Jimenez	officer: Chief Financial Officer	2040 MAIN ST., SUITE 225, IRVINE CA 92614
Matthew Morgan	director, officer: Chief Executive Officer	2040 MAIN STREET, SUITE 225, IRVINE CA 92614