Blade Air Mobility (Blade Air Mobility) Predictability Rank

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What is Blade Air Mobility Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Blade Air Mobility Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Blade Air Mobility (Blade Air Mobility) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Industrials » Transportation » Blade Air Mobility Inc (NAS:BLDE) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

55 Hudson Yards, 14th Floor, New York, NY, USA, 10016

Website

https://www.blade.com

Blade Air Mobility Inc is a technology-powered air mobility platform that provides consumers with a cost-effective and time-efficient alternative to ground transportation for congested routes. The company's Passenger reporting segment arranges charter and by-the-seat flights using helicopters, jets, turboprops, and amphibious seaplanes operating in various locations throughout the United States and abroad. The company's Medical reporting segment includes air medical transporters of human organs in the United States, providing end-to-end logistics for transplant centers and organ procurement organizations utilizing helicopters, jets, turboprops and ground vehicles.

Executives

Seth J Bacon	officer: CEO, Trinity Air Medical	C/O BLADE AIR MOBILITY, INC., 55 HUDSON YARDS, 14TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10001
Robert S Wiesenthal	director, officer: Chief Executive Officer	C/O SONY CORP OF AMERICA, 550 MADISON AVE, NEW YORK NY 10022
William A. Heyburn	officer: Chief Financial Officer	C/O BLADE AIR MOBILITY, INC., 31 HUDSON YARDS, 11TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10001
Melissa M. Tomkiel	officer: President and General Counsel	C/O BLADE AIR MOBILITY, INC., 31 HUDSON YARDS, 11TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10001
Amir Cohen	officer: Chief Accounting Officer	C/O BLADE AIR MOBILITY, INC., 31 HUDSON YARDS, 11TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10001
Reginald Love	director	C/O BRIGHTSPHERE INC., 200 CLARENDON STREET, BOSTON MA 02116
Eric Affeldt	director	ONE CEDAR POINT DRIVE, SANDUSKY OH 44870
John Borthwick	director	C/O BLADE AIR MOBILITY, INC., 55 HUDSON YARDS, 14TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10001
Andrew Lauck	director	667 MADISON AVE, 16TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10065
Brandon A. Keene	officer: Chief Technology Officer	C/O BLADE AIR MOBILITY, INC., 31 HUDSON YARDS, 11TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10001
Anatoli Arkhipenko	officer: Chief Technology Officer	145 PARK PL, APT 5G, BROOKLYN NY 11217
Kenneth B Lerer	director
Edward M Philip	director	C/O HASBRO, INC., 1011 NEWPORT AVENUE, PAWTUCKET RI 02861
Susan M Lyne	director	11 WEST 42ND STREET, NEW YORK NY 10036
Jane C Garvey	director	P.O. BOX 66100 - HDQLD, CHICAGO IL 60666