Allbirds (Allbirds) Predictability Rank

View and export this data going back to 2021. Start your Free Trial

What is Allbirds Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Allbirds Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Allbirds Predictability Rank Related Terms

Thank you for viewing the detailed overview of Allbirds's Predictability Rank provided by GuruFocus.com. Please click on the following links to see related term pages.

Allbirds (Allbirds) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Consumer Cyclical » Retail - Cyclical » Allbirds Inc (NAS:BIRD) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

730 Montgomery Street, San Francisco, CA, USA, 94111

Website

https://www.allbirds.com

Allbirds Inc is a lifestyle brand that innovates with naturally derived materials to make footwear and apparel products in a better way, while treading lighter on the planet. Its primary source of revenue is from sales of shoes and apparel products. The majority of the revenue is derived from United States.

Executives

Joseph Vernachio	officer: Chief Operating Officer	C/O ALLBIRDS, INC., 730 MONTGOMERY STREET, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94111
Ann Mitchell	officer: Chief Financial Officer	C/O ALLBIRDS, INC., 730 MONTGOMERY STREET, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94111
Dan Levitan	director, 10 percent owner	505 FIFTH AVE S, STE 600, SEATTLE WA 98104
Michael J Bufano	officer: Chief Financial Officer	C/O ALLBIRDS, INC., 730 MONTGOMERY STREET, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94111
Joseph Zwillinger	director, 10 percent owner, officer: Co-Chief Executive Officer	C/O BIG SKY GROWTH PARTNERS, INC., 1201 WESTERN AVENUE, SUITE 406, SEATTLE WA 98101
Ann Freeman	director	C/O ALLBIRDS, INC., 730 MONTGOMERY STREET, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94111
Timothy O. Brown	director, 10 percent owner, officer: Co-Chief Executive Officer	C/O ALLBIRDS, INC., 730 MONTGOMERY STREET, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94111
Goldman Sachs Group Inc	10 percent owner	200 WEST STREET, NEW YORK NY 10282
Sachs International Goldman	10 percent owner	PLUMTREE COURT, 25 SHOE LANE, LONDON X0 EC4A 4AU
Goldman Sachs & Co. Llc	10 percent owner	200 WEST STREET, NEW YORK NY 10282
Maveron Equity Partners V, L.p.	10 percent owner	411 FIRST AVENUE SOUTH, SUITE 600, SEATTLE WA 98104
Maveron General Partner V, Llc	10 percent owner	411 FIRST AVENUE SOUTH, SUITE 600, SEATTLE WA 98104
Maveron V Entrepreneurs' Fund, L.p.	10 percent owner	411 FIRST AVENUE SOUTH, SUITE 600, SEATTLE WA 98104
Mep Associates V, L.p.	10 percent owner	411 FIRST AVENUE SOUTH, SUITE 600, SEATTLE WA 98104
Neil Harris Blumenthal	director	C/O WARBY PARKER INC., 233 SPRING STREET, 6TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10013