Braemar Hotels & Resorts (Braemar Hotels & Resorts) Predictability Rank

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What is Braemar Hotels & Resorts Predictability Rank?

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Braemar Hotels & Resorts Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Braemar Hotels & Resorts Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Braemar Hotels & Resorts (Braemar Hotels & Resorts) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Real Estate » REITs » Braemar Hotels & Resorts Inc (NYSE:BHR) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

BHRpD.PFD:USA BHRpB.PFD:USA 42V:Germany

Address

14185 Dallas Parkway, Suite 1200, Dallas, TX, USA, 75254

Website

http://www.bhrreit.com

Braemar Hotels & Resorts Inc is a real estate investment trust company that invests in high revenue per available room, or RevPAR, luxury, upper-upscale and upscale hotels in gateway and resort locations. The firm operates in various U.S. states such as California, Texas, Washington, Philadelphia, Florida, and Illinois as well as Washington, D.C. and St. Thomas, U.S. Virgin Islands. The company operates through its direct hotel investment segment. Its revenue streams include rooms, food and beverage, and other. The firm's hotels operate under various brands, such as Marriott, Hilton, Courtyard, and Renaissance, among others.

Executives

Abteen Vaziri	director	14185 DALLAS PARKWAY, SUITE 1100, DALLAS TX 75254
Richard J Stockton	officer: Chief Executive Officer	14185 DALLAS PARKWAY, SUITE 1100, DALLAS TX 75254
Montgomery J Bennett	director, officer: Chief Executive Officer	14185 DALLAS PARKWAY, SUITE 1100, DALLAS TX 75254
Mary Candace Evans	director	11407 WEST RICKS CIRCLE, DALLAS TX 75230
Rebeca M Johnson	director	14185 DALLAS PARKWAY, SUITE 1200, DALLAS TX 75240
Curtis B Mcwilliams	director	450 SOUTH ORANGE AVENUE, ORLANDO FL 32801
Alex Rose	officer: Exec. VP, GC and Secretary	14185 DALLAS PARKWAY, SUITE 1200, DALLAS TX 75254
Deric S Eubanks	officer: CFO and Treasurer	14185 DALLAS PARKWAY, SUITE 1100, DALLAS TX 75254
Stefani D Carter	director	14185 DALLAS PARKWAY, SUITE 1100, DALLAS TX 75254
Mark Nunneley	officer: Chief Accounting Officer	14185 DALLAS PARKWAY, SUITE 1100, DALLAS TX 75254
Robert G. Haiman	officer: Exec. VP, GC and Secretary	14185 DALLAS PARKWAY, SUITE 1100, DALLAS TX 75254
Jeremy Welter	officer: EVP-Asset Management	14185 DALLAS PARKWAY, SUITE 1100, DALLAS TX 75254
Darrouzet Sarah Zubiate	director	14185 DALLAS PARKWAY, SUITE 1100, DALLAS TX 75254
Daniel B. Silvers	director	1199 PARK AVENUE #17A, NEW YORK NY 10128
Lawrence A Cunningham	director	4521 HIGHWOODS PARKWAY, GLEN ALLEN VA 23060