Benson Hill (Benson Hill) Predictability Rank

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What is Benson Hill Predictability Rank?

Not Rated

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Benson Hill Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

	Predictables	Non-Predictable	All stocks
Total Number of stocks	570	1833	2403
Total Lost Money	61	830	891
Total Lost More Than 50%	18	412	430
Total Lost More Than 90%	4	86	90
Average Gain	260.6%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain	150.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gain	2852.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loss	-100.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	12.7%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	8.9%	1.1%	3.1%

For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank	5-Star	4.5-Star	4-Star	3.5-Star	3-Star	2.5-Star	2-Star	1-Star (non-predictable)	Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks	3.3%	2.9%	3.7%	3.3%	3.3%	3.7%	3.3%	76.3%	100%
% that are in Loss (10y)	3%	10%	8%	9%	11%	18%	16%	45%	37%
Average Gain (10y)	364.6%	330.9%	278.0%	235.1%	243.5%	227.8%	154.8%	100.0%	138.1%
Median Gain (10y)	238.5%	193.5%	171.0%	159.0%	132.5%	113.5%	87.0%	13.0%	39.0%
Maximum Gainer	2228.0%	2547.0%	2452.0%	2852.0%	2432.0%	1892.0%	1807.0%	11483.0%	11483.0%
Maximum Loser	-82.0%	-53.0%	-67.0%	-100.0%	-83.0%	-100.0%	-78.0%	-100.0%	-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain	15.4%	14.6%	13.2%	12.0%	12.2%	11.7%	9.1%	6.7%	8.4%
Annualized Median Gain	12.1%	10.6%	9.8%	9.3%	8.2%	7.3%	6.0%	1.1%	3.1%

For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

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Benson Hill (Benson Hill) Business Description

Industry

GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Basic Materials » Agriculture » Benson Hill Inc (NYSE:BHIL) » Definitions » Predictability Rank

Comparable Companies

Traded in Other Exchanges

N/A

Address

1001 North Warson Road, Saint Louis, MO, USA, 63132

Website

https://www.bensonhill.com

Benson Hill Inc is a food technology company. It operates in one segment Ingredients. The ingredients segment is currently focused on commercializing soybean and yellow pea products, including soy-based specialty vegetable oils, aquaculture and animal feed, and ultra-high protein soy-based ingredients that have the potential to eliminate costly water and energy-intensive processing associated with producing products for the food and feed markets, alleviating supply constraints to help bring plant-based proteins to scale.

Executives

Bruce Tyler Bennett	officer: President, Ingredients	C/O BENSON HILL, INC., 1001 N. WARSON RD., ST. LEWIS MO 63132
Richard L Mack	director	9590 SKY LANE, EDEN PRAIRIE MN 55347
Yevgeny Fundler	officer: Chief Legal Officer, other: Corporate Secretary	1001 NORTH WARSON ROAD, ST. LOUIS MO 63132
Jason Bull	officer: Chief Technology Officer	C/O BENSON HILL, INC., 1001 N. WARSON RD., ST. LEWIS MO 63132
Dean P Freeman	officer: Chief Financial Officer	C/O BENSON HILL, INC.,1001 N WARSON RD, SAINT LOUIS MO 63132
Matthew B. Crisp	director, officer: President and CEO	C/O BENSON HILL, INC., 1001 N. WARSON RD., ST. LEWIS MO 63132
Montgomery Molly	director	739 MILLER AVENUE, MILL VALLEY CA 94941
David J. Lee	director	C/O ZYNGA INC., 699 8TH STREET, SAN FRANCISCO CA 94103
Deann L Brunts	director, officer: Chief Financial Officer	C/O B&G FOODS, INC., 4 GATEHALL DRIVE, PARSIPPANY NJ 07054
Adrienne Elsner	director	ONE OWENS CORNING PKWY, TOLEDO OH 43659
Linda Whitley-taylor	director	C/O BENSON HILL, INC., 1001 NORTH WARSON ROAD, SAINT LOUIS MO 63132
Stephan Dolezalek	director	C/O BENSON HILL, INC., 1001 N. WARSON RD., ST. LEWIS MO 63132
Daniel Jacobi	director	C/O BENSON HILL, INC., 1001 N. WARSON RD., ST. LEWIS MO 63132
Michael D. Wilds	officer: CFO and CAO	C/O MAGNETAR CAPITAL LLC, 1603 ORRINGTON AVENUE, 13TH FLOOR, EVANSTON IL 60201
Star Peak Sponsor Ii Llc	10 percent owner	1603 ORRINGTON AVENUE, 13TH FLOOR, EVANSTON IL 60201