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BGSF (BGSF) Predictability Rank


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What is BGSF Predictability Rank?

1 (5)

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

BGSF Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

BGSF Predictability Rank Related Terms

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BGSF (BGSF) Business Description

Industry
GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Industrials » Business Services » BGSF Inc (NYSE:BGSF) » Definitions » Predictability Rank
Comparable Companies
MHH JOB HSON IPDN RLBY PIXY STAF RCRT GXXM HQI ADP TSE:6098 PAYX XAMS:RAND RHI BZ XSWX:ADEN TNET NSP MAN
Traded in Other Exchanges
BGK0:Germany
Address
5850 Granite Parkway, Suite 730, Plano, TX, USA, 75024
Website
https://www.bgsf.com
BGSF Inc is engaged in providing temporary staffing services. The company has expertise in Real Estate, Professional, and Light Industrial sectors. The majority of its revenue comes from the Professional segment that provides skilled field talent on a nationwide basis for information technology & finance, accounting, legal and human resource client partner projects on a national basis. The services offered by the company include Staffing and Recruiting, Executive Search, Project & Consulting, and Onsite Management.
Executives
Douglas Hailey director 861 MAGGIES WAY, WATERBURY CENTER VT 05677
Donna Carroll director 5850 GRANITE PARKWAY #730, PLANO TX 75024
John R Barnett officer: CFO and Secretary 111 CONGRESSIONAL BLVD, STE 500, CARMEL IN 46032
Allen C. David Jr director 805 HUNTINGTON COURT, SOUTHLAKE TX 76092
Baum Richard L Jr director 10 KINZEL LANE, WEST ORANGE NJ 07052
Paul Seid director 22 WOODHAVEN DRIVE, NEW CITY NY 10956
Cynthia Marshall director 5850 GRANITE PARKWAY STE 730, PLANO TX 75024
Dan Hollenbach officer: CFO and Secretary C/O BG STAFFING, INC., 5850 GRANITE PARKWAY, SUITE 730, PLANO TX 75024
Beth Garvey officer: Chief Operating Officer 4528 DAFFODIL TRAIL, PLANO TX 75093
Baker L. Allen Jr. director, officer: President and CEO 7338 MAY HALL DRIVE, FRISCO TX 75034
Robert G Weinrich officer: interim CFO and Secretary 158 NATCHES TRACE, COPPELL TX 75019
Michael A Rutledge officer: CFO and Secretary 5000 LEGACY DR, SUITE 350, PLANO TX 75024