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Franklin BSP Lending (Franklin BSP Lending) Predictability Rank


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What is Franklin BSP Lending Predictability Rank?

1 (5)

Warren Buffett said many times that the companies he likes are:

1. Simple businesses that he understands
2. that have predictable and proven earnings and
3. with economic moat
4. those can be bought at a reasonable price.

It is hard to quantify "simple businesses that he (Buffett) understands", so we will focus on the other three characteristics instead. In GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank, we will show that the businesses that have predictable and proven earnings are usually also simple businesses that an average person could understand.

GuruFocus conducted a back test study of Warren Buffett's strategy of "buying good companies at fair prices" for the years from 1998-2008.

Franklin BSP Lending Predictability Rank Calculation

In our database there are 2403 stocks that have been traded from Jan. 2, 1998 to Aug. 31, 2008. We have the complete 10-year financial data and trading prices of these companies for this period. We rank the predictability of these companies based on the consistency of their revenue per share and EBITDA (earning before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) per share over the past ten fiscal years, and study the correlation between the stock performances and the predictability of the business.

Our study may be subject to these biases and assumptions:

Dividend yields are not counted for investment returns
Effects of price changes due to spin-offs may not be fully adjusted
Study is subjected to survivorship bias due to de-listing, bankruptcy, LBO, M&A, etc.

The correlation between business predictability and investment returns of a company is showed below.

Correlation Between Business Predictability and Investment Returns

PredictablesNon-PredictableAll stocks
Total Number of stocks57018332403
Total Lost Money61830891
Total Lost More Than 50%18412430
Total Lost More Than 90%48690
Average Gain260.6%100.0%138.1%
Median Gain150.0%13.0%39.0%
Maximum Gain2852.0%11483.0%11483.0%
Maximum Loss-100.0%-100.0%-100.0%
Annualized Average Gain12.7%6.7%8.4%
Annualized Median Gain8.9%1.1%3.1%


















For the 570 predictable companies, we have seen strong correlation between the predictability of businesses and the stock performances over the past 10 years, regardless of the valuation of business at 1998. Accordingly, we have ranked the business predictability from 5-star to 1-star, as shown in this table.

Predictability Rank5-Star4.5-Star4-Star3.5-Star3-Star2.5-Star2-Star1-Star (non-predictable)Average among all
% Out of All 2403 Stocks 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.7% 3.3% 76.3% 100%
% that are in Loss (10y) 3% 10% 8% 9% 11% 18% 16% 45% 37%
Average Gain (10y) 364.6% 330.9% 278.0% 235.1% 243.5% 227.8% 154.8% 100.0% 138.1%
Median Gain (10y) 238.5% 193.5% 171.0% 159.0% 132.5% 113.5% 87.0% 13.0% 39.0%
Maximum Gainer 2228.0% 2547.0% 2452.0% 2852.0% 2432.0% 1892.0% 1807.0% 11483.0% 11483.0%
Maximum Loser -82.0% -53.0% -67.0% -100.0% -83.0% -100.0% -78.0% -100.0% -100.0%
Annualized Average Gain 15.4% 14.6% 13.2% 12.0% 12.2% 11.7% 9.1% 6.7% 8.4%
Annualized Median Gain 12.1% 10.6% 9.8% 9.3% 8.2% 7.3% 6.0% 1.1% 3.1%
















For detailed information about each predictability rank, please go to GuruFocus Research: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part I: Introduction of Predictability Rank

Also read:

Part II: What worked in the market from 1998-2008? Part II: Role of Valuations
Part III: Intrinsic Value, Discounted Cash Flow and Margin of Safety

Franklin BSP Lending Predictability Rank Related Terms

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Franklin BSP Lending (Franklin BSP Lending) Business Description

Industry
GURUFOCUS.COM » STOCK LIST » Financial Services » Asset Management » Franklin BSP Lending Corp (OTCPK:BDVC) » Definitions » Predictability Rank
Comparable Companies
KYN JFR PX ETG BSTZ BST DSL QQQX NFJ EVV BLK BX OSTO:INVE A TSX:BN KKR APO BK AMP XSWX:PGHN LSE:III
Traded in Other Exchanges
N/A
Address
9 West 57th Street, Suite 4920, 49th Floor, New York, NY, USA, 10019
Website
https://www.benefitstreetpartners.com
Franklin BSP Lending Corp is an externally managed, non-diversified closed-end management investment company. The company has elected to be regulated as a business development company. The company's investment objective is to generate both current income and capital appreciation through debt and equity investments. It invests primarily in senior secured loans, and to a lesser extent, mezzanine loans, unsecured loans and equity of predominantly private U.S. middle-market companies. It also purchases interests in loans or corporate bonds through secondary market transactions.
Executives
Michael Frick officer: Secretary 9 WEST 57TH STREET, 49TH FLOOR, SUITE 4920, NEW YORK NY 10019
Nina Kang Baryski officer: CFO & Treasurer 9 WEST 57TH STREET, SUITE 4920, NEW YORK NY 10019
Dennis M Schaney director MORGAN STANLEY INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT, 522 FIFTH AVENUE, FLOOR 6, NEW YORK NY 10036
Lee S Hillman director 222 S RIVERSIDE PLAZE STE 2800, CHICAGO IL 60606
Ronald J Kramer director 712 FIFTH AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10019
Richard J Byrne director, officer: See Remarks 350 PARK AVENUE, 20TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022
Leeor P. Avigdor officer: Corporate Secretary C/O 9 WEST 57TH ST., SUITE 4920, NEW YORK NY 10019
Weil Edward M Jr. director C/O AMERICAN REALTY CAPITAL 405 PARK AVE, NEW YORK NY 10022
Pankovcin Corinne officer: CFO, Secretary and Treasurer BUSINESS DEVELOPMENT CORP OF AMERICA, 405 PARK AVENUE, 14TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022
James A. Fisher officer: President, COO C/O BUSINESS DEVELOPMENT CORP OF AMERICA, 405 PARK AVENUE, 14TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022
Randolph C Read director C/O NEW YORK REIT, INC., 405 PARK AVENUE, NEW YORK NY 10022
Nicholas Radesca officer: CFO and Treasurer C/O SOLAR CAPITAL LLC, 500 PARK AVENUE, 5TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022
Robert Grunewald officer: Chief Investment Officer 405 PARK AVENUE, 15TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022
Bdca Adviser, Llc 10 percent owner 405 PARK AVENUE, 15TH FLOOR, NEW YORK NY 10022
Brian S Block officer: CFO and Treasurer C/O AMERICAN FINANCIAL REALTY TRUST, 1725 THE FALWAY, JENKINTOWN PA 19048